Fifa International · resolved market
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4edeb1889f319fcb6dfba9c7b6e8ef4e61a3880e1f7efeba025ebc64b93b9acc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 29c | 8,159$2,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,773.28 | 744 | 47.8%356 W · 388 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 71c | 7,180$5,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,108.82 | 327 | 65.7%215 W · 112 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…7c7bbacked No | 65c | 1,307$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.52 | 160 | 65%104 W · 56 L | +16.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 56c | 872.76$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.24 | 379 | 59.1%224 W · 155 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 62c | 808.45$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.61 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Yes | 27c | 700$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…a426backed Yes | 43c | 698.09$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.09 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33d7…0ffebacked No | 76c | 669.25$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.63 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 695 | 34.8%242 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e74…ec81backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 286 | 26.9%77 W · 209 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 76c | 270$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.1 | 245 | 41.2%101 W · 144 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked No | 73c | 244.98$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.16 | 1,206 | 50.2%606 W · 600 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed No | 64c | 238.56$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.8 | 379 | 71.2%270 W · 109 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 265 | 37.7%100 W · 165 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 71c | 146$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.76 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Yes | 27c | 140.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.35 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 25c | 140$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2172…7101backed Yes | 36c | 125.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.74 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 118.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.75 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf511…bfe4backed No | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 145 | 79.3%115 W · 30 L | +17.0wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 69c | 82.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 32c | 75.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 1,306 | 44.7%584 W · 722 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96b…9c4cbacked Yes | 26c | 75.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.51 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +21.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 1,388 | 15.1%210 W · 1,178 L | -16.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbd…4476backed Yes | 32c | 67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 212 | 50.9%108 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b5…280cbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 81 | 35.8%29 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 60.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…2c8dbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 434 | 60.4%262 W · 172 L | +33.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…db4bbacked Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 462 | 47.6%220 W · 242 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed No | 59c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 172 | 71.5%123 W · 49 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x305e…b28bbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 33.3%87 W · 174 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 62c | 25.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 190 | 64.2%122 W · 68 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 58c | 17.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goalsthis page
- Alessandro Schöpf: 2+ goalsNo won
- Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ goalsNo won
- Konrad Laimer: 1+ goalsNo won
- Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assistsNo won
- Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goalsNo won
- Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ goalsNo won
- Marko Arnautovic: 1+ shotsYes won
- Marko Arnautovic: 2+ shotsYes won
- Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ goalsNo won
- Romano Schmid: 1+ goalsYes won
- Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ assistsNo won
- Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ goalsNo won
- Stefan Posch: 1+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.