Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91fce5f943c088658aafb7ecf64b11ecb366ce9e5177d2e71824c4dceb77befe

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,580
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $7,522

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,580 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9c76…c926backed No	67c	5,014$3,348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,666.09	379	59.1%224 W · 155 L	+20.5wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+12%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes	33c	2,919$954 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$953.51	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed No	71c	914.43$649 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265.18	166	33.7%56 W · 110 L	-8.4wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba5a…344cbacked Yes	35c	448.75$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.06	79	43%34 W · 45 L	-5.3wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc514…e9b4backed Yes	34c	419.29$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.14	199	35.2%70 W · 129 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc977…56f1backed Yes	29c	341.38$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	108	23.1%25 W · 83 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa7f…dc59backed Yes	32c	312.5$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	104	25%26 W · 78 L	-5.0wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbff4…b609backed Yes	29c	303.45$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	151	40.4%61 W · 90 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed No	68c	300$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	403	43.7%176 W · 227 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Yes	31c	287.92$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.11	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa76d…3e8ebacked Yes	35c	257.14$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	99	42.4%42 W · 57 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes	32c	200$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	1,206	50.2%606 W · 600 L	+44.5wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x480e…90c7backed Yes	35c	171.43$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	49	16.3%8 W · 41 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c8d…4f5cbacked No	70c	143.14$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.94	104	52.9%55 W · 49 L	+5.9wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed No	63c	137.28$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.79	464	64.9%301 W · 163 L	+26.6wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e01…7ef0backed No	72c	124.69$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.4	379	71.2%270 W · 109 L	+13.2wins	+0.03per pick	68cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39e9…e2dfbacked Yes	34c	117.57$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.5	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8adc…6b14backed Yes	29c	103.45$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	667	45%300 W · 367 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2f9…f703backed Yes	28c	86.92$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.25	41	58.5%24 W · 17 L	+3.0wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xadfd…038bbacked No	71c	80$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.2	364	23.6%86 W · 278 L	+12.1wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b74…0482backed Yes	27c	73.49$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.84	265	37.7%100 W · 165 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeacb…4a8ebacked Yes	32c	71.88$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	49	34.7%17 W · 32 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c5f…8eadbacked Yes	29c	68.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.21per pick	41cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed Yes	29c	68.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	396	48.7%193 W · 203 L	-23.6wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1c9…748cbacked No	73c	68.49$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.49	56	58.9%33 W · 23 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	62cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Yes	26c	67.19$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.52	695	34.8%242 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes	32c	62.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,388	15.1%210 W · 1,178 L	-16.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No	78c	55.76$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.47	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4068…f40cbacked Yes	38c	52.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	30%12 W · 28 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1246…de6fbacked Yes	32c	44$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.08	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Yes	35c	42.86$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	317	47.6%151 W · 166 L	+13.0wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4dbd…4476backed Yes	35c	42.86$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	212	50.9%108 W · 104 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf306…4cf8backed Yes	32c	37.5$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	114	38.6%44 W · 70 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No	67c	35.78$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.89	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4e4…c62abacked No	72c	33.34$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.35	39	48.7%19 W · 20 L	-4.3wins	-0.11per pick	60cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x85ee…79a9backed Yes	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	120	60%72 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d0…0736backed Yes	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	315	43.5%137 W · 178 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe150…98a5backed Yes	42c	30.95$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+4.2wins	+0.28per pick	45cpaid	+68.5%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed No	75c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.5	172	71.5%123 W · 49 L	+12.8wins	+0.07per pick	64cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed No	57c	24.85$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.58	1,795	44.2%794 W · 1,001 L	-12.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed No	67c	21.81$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	126	53.2%67 W · 59 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No	70c	18.7$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.64	2,796	56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L	-9.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No	67c	18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.89	397	46.3%184 W · 213 L	-28.9wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No	71c	17.24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	302	41.4%125 W · 177 L	-8.2wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb1e…e4efbacked No	73c	15.14$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.09	11	100%11 W · 0 L	+3.4wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+46.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked No	75c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.75	454	72.9%331 W · 123 L	+18.8wins	+0.04per pick	69cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e94…776bbacked No	72c	14.28$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	87	42.5%37 W · 50 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event