NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4efd3c97f7eaa992c5e403019253902288ee240b7e33dac6e5a76c5e2e05a3af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 3,162$1,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,644.24 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 13c | 1,062$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.11 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 988.71$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.83 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 433.34$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.53 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…04ebbacked Over | 46c | 336$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.98 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…d1e1backed Under | 67c | 161.09$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Over | 48c | 139.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1507…fbfbbacked Over | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x130c…782cbacked Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 144 | 20.1%29 W · 115 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…0adcbacked Over | 53c | 75.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254f…2fb8backed Over | 52c | 53.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…f54fbacked Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf8…2540backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 187 | 57.2%107 W · 80 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5d…20c8backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 54c | 32.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…617fbacked Over | 52c | 29.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82be…627bbacked Over | 52c | 27.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…8512backed Over | 52c | 27.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…0f55backed Over | 52c | 27.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9f…a82fbacked Under | 73c | 26.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9105…1ae2backed Over | 52c | 26.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570b…1263backed Over | 52c | 26.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9b…ae51backed Over | 52c | 25.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c8…a2aabacked Over | 52c | 24.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…87dabacked Over | 52c | 23.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe74e…90b6backed Over | 52c | 20.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…7292backed Over | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5this page
- Spread: Clippers (-1.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Clippers won
- Warriors vs. ClippersClippers won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: 1H MoneylineClippers won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 222.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.