NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49628f09c32b8a10466e097222a1845c491988959104cb45b91fa5aeb38e4d90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Clippersof Warriors, Clippers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Warriors | 53c | 6,978$3,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,678.06 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Clippers | 67c | 6,126$4,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,036.78 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Clippers | 48c | 4,500$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,339.95 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 54c | 4,224$2,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,291.4 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Warriors | 51c | 4,211$2,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,147.74 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Clippers | 49c | 4,076$1,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,083.32 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 33c | 3,642$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.66 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Warriors | 54c | 3,124$1,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,687.14 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Clippers | 46c | 3,001$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620.54 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Clippers | 46c | 2,983$1,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,610.82 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…fe1abacked Warriors | 56c | 2,250$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.98 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Warriors | 52c | 2,229$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.86 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Warriors | 34c | 1,500$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c4…c9b0backed Clippers | 46c | 1,072$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Clippers | 44c | 928.26$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.83 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Clippers | 44c | 834.49$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.84 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Warriors | 51c | 713$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.63 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5c…e4f6backed Warriors | 57c | 351.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Clippers | 46c | 337$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.98 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Clippers | 45c | 247.64$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.2 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Clippers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Clippers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 235 | 53.6%126 W · 109 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…3ffebacked Clippers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53b0…4daabacked Warriors | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Clippers | 67c | 156.71$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Warriors | 18c | 121.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Warriors | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 309 | 45.3%140 W · 169 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55a2…825cbacked Warriors | 52c | 89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Warriors | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Clippers | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1725…7405backed Warriors | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Warriors | 28c | 75.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Warriors | 51c | 68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Warriors | 42c | 59.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdd…23d8backed Warriors | 55c | 59.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…5d17backed Clippers | 49c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Warriors | 34c | 40.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Clippers | 69c | 40.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Clippers | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc337…c55bbacked Warriors | 52c | 35.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Clippers | 45c | 29.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Clippers | 47c | 26.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf8…2540backed Warriors | 56c | 22.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dd…1417backed Clippers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Warriors | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…0ad7backed Warriors | 52c | 19.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5d…b99abacked Clippers | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Clippers (-1.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Clippers won
- Warriors vs. ClippersClippers won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: 1H MoneylineClippers won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 222.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.