NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf0ddd2b95a94e0e1b2fbd87c6554ff5299dd06a562c6c9cada5bcb671c982a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 43c | 8,196$3,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,562.79 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 5,942$3,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,775.77 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 56c | 3,150$1,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.04 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd499…c6b7backed Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…c39bbacked Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 1,956$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.88 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Under | 51c | 1,569$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.63 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Under | 53c | 936.73$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.73 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 59c | 800$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 478.22$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.33 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 59c | 457.24$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.42 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 41c | 397.91$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.14 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 60c | 281.87$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.65 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 39c | 270.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 39c | 249.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 59c | 229$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.89 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3295…07afbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…2579backed Under | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Under | 55c | 183.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.44 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 49c | 160$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 121.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x552e…a856backed Under | 53c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ace…bb93backed Over | 49c | 116.8$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 10c | 105.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 61c | 75.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 49c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…5646backed Over | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 269 | 56.1%151 W · 118 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 273 | 53.8%147 W · 126 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 49c | 28.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Over | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 266 | 48.5%129 W · 137 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Over | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Under | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91bb…dce3backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5this page
- Spread: Clippers (-1.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Clippers won
- Warriors vs. ClippersClippers won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: 1H MoneylineClippers won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 222.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 225.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.