Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Inner Circle (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f064d432af3b6a018122e35c3cdded341cf19e41e22d65c187af03013788d94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof MOUZ, Inner Circle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed MOUZ | 40c | 8,298$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,998.04 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed Inner Circle | 59c | 4,928$2,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,907.46 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaf…d959backed Inner Circle | 59c | 3,346$1,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,975.84 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…57e0backed Inner Circle | 62c | 2,175$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.56 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Inner Circle | 57c | 1,039$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.93 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Inner Circle | 62c | 994.98$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.89 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…8fd0backed MOUZ | 43c | 991.45$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.45 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Inner Circle | 58c | 702.03$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.18 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…48cabacked Inner Circle | 62c | 644.74$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.74 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a1…bedfbacked MOUZ | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…3cbebacked Inner Circle | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71df…9aa0backed Inner Circle | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Inner Circle | 63c | 500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c93…33d5backed Inner Circle | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccce…58dabacked MOUZ | 43c | 470$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd24c…3f33backed MOUZ | 42c | 304.76$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.76 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked MOUZ | 40c | 299.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…73c7backed MOUZ | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed MOUZ | 40c | 207$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.2 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed MOUZ | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 408 | 44.1%180 W · 228 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed Inner Circle | 60c | 200$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddbd…bcb5backed MOUZ | 41c | 186.32$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.93 | 140 | 30.7%43 W · 97 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Inner Circle | 61c | 166.64$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.59 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Inner Circle | 60c | 165.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…003fbacked Inner Circle | 60c | 165$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 450 | 52.4%236 W · 214 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed MOUZ | 38c | 159.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f63…89f3backed Inner Circle | 60c | 151.51$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked MOUZ | 39c | 141.29$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.66 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Inner Circle | 59c | 140$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.08 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked MOUZ | 40c | 120.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked MOUZ | 41c | 117.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.61 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed MOUZ | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…92fbbacked Inner Circle | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…ed83backed Inner Circle | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d1…ee7abacked Inner Circle | 60c | 96.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 243 | 45.3%110 W · 133 L | +15.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Inner Circle | 60c | 60.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0932…ba5abacked Inner Circle | 37c | 59.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4e…5973backed MOUZ | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Inner Circle | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…04a3backed Inner Circle | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Inner Circle | 59c | 49.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked MOUZ | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 325 | 48.9%159 W · 166 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Inner Circle | 60c | 38.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…2485backed Inner Circle | 60c | 37.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed MOUZ | 67c | 37.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Inner Circle | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…a307backed MOUZ | 41c | 34.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed Inner Circle | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 66.2%96 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked MOUZ | 79c | 26.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…2184backed MOUZ | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed MOUZ | 62c | 20.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Inner Circle (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsMOUZ won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 WinnerMOUZ won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.