WNBA · resolved market
Las Vegas Aces vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 183.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fec89d0477aebe7a57e6b0eda5652d6d6b8aaf53a6b23e3b9f28fd795ff4aa5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 3,664$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,712.22 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 2,214$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.93 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 1,831$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.15 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…20e7backed Under | 56c | 1,727$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 1,121$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.83 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 523.51$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.99 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 48c | 505$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.1 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 49c | 424.6$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.62 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 50c | 261.45$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.39 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 51c | 171.13$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.61 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 45c | 166.87$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed7…aae7backed Over | 49c | 163.47$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.47 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 45c | 140.6$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 49c | 94.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 51c | 76.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 54c | 73.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 49c | 70.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 46c | 50.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 173 | 43.9%76 W · 97 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 48c | 48.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 55c | 38.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 133 | 55.6%74 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 52c | 36.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 192 | 57.3%110 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 51c | 35.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1957…0e20backed Over | 46c | 31.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Over | 45c | 28.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 48c | 26.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Under | 51c | 25.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 184 | 41.8%77 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Over | 59c | 23.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 48c | 22.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 183.5this page
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Minnesota LynxMinnesota Lynx won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 181.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 182.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 184.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 185.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5)Minnesota Lynx won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-5.5)Minnesota Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.