Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ff0aa4a0c54943eeac43ee242b316ce64bda8a3786388f115d1882dd1e37a39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2188…7a8dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 3,083$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.14 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 8c | 437$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 35c | 374.9$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.63 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 66c | 272.98$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc78…0a57backed Yes | 39c | 252.05$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 4c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 62c | 242.69$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.69 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 221.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f7…1f0abacked No | 80c | 202.88$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…7f98backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 26c | 178.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 18c | 169.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 154.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f6…6156backed No | 58c | 149.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b1…9121backed Yes | 44c | 140$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 38c | 134.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 118.38$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 117$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 115.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed No | 58c | 111.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed No | 66c | 106.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 102.19$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 65c | 101.59$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…12b4backed Yes | 37c | 101.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…e519backed Yes | 36c | 100.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…bda1backed Yes | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 35c | 99.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 96.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 28c | 96.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 71c | 95.41$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 43c | 94.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 87.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…329bbacked No | 57c | 79.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 78.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 55c | 74.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1264…3b78backed Yes | 35c | 72.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 76c | 72.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…8fabbacked No | 56c | 69.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked No | 67c | 67.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 66.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 62.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…680bbacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 61c | 58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 72c | 55.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…e3f0backed Yes | 22c | 54.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 57c | 52.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 57c | 52.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 65c | 51.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 37c | 50.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 46c | 50.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…c567backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…fdc7backed Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x716b…9fcfbacked No | 62c | 48.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 70cpaid | -38%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 38c | 46.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 57c | 40.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…b8c4backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 31c | 39.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 59c | 38.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24b5…d8dbbacked Yes | 41c | 34.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 56c | 33.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…42acbacked No | 68c | 33.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7e…13d2backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 65c | 30.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62b…07c5backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ca…2c2abacked Yes | 40c | 29.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 40c | 29.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 79c | 25.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 67c | 23.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e6…0210backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…d0b1backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.