TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,318
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,818

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,318 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd1a6…1507backed No2c1,014$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.982,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x437f…5b95backed Yes60c450.6$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.4212536.8%46 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes36c445.33$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.0388028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No7c378.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8753525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No9c349$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.254,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No35c344.85$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe25c…7908backed No23c311.44$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1322857.5%131 W · 97 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x438a…61c4backed Yes66c299.61$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.5223143.3%100 W · 131 L+19.0wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes74c250.21$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.863743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No30c207.23$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.012,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No6c202.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.972,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No29c185$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.425,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes44c160.65$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.693,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No8c159.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.541,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No37c156.74$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.463,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Yes7c150$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.6516432.9%54 W · 110 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+47.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes66c144.77$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.085,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9382…dd19backed Yes13c142.28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.838515.3%13 W · 72 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes43c141.8$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.091,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes76c140.68$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.345540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes16c136.3$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.073,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed No46c132$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.021,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86f7…1f0abacked No31c131.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes61c129.28$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6822746.7%106 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2109…58b3backed No46c122.53$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.85337.7%20 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71b5…6dabbacked No43c121.83$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.264942.9%21 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No74c117$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.635,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No27c113.56$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.216,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes63c110$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.161,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes68c107.96$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3824466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No22c101.08$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.184,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.91,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cf7…1cd7backed Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes19c92.64$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.441,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed No66c90.76$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6454857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No79c89$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8791444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x658b…84bfbacked Yes56c87.9$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6420445.1%92 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa9e…2264backed Yes14c83.97$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.1310351.5%53 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes72c82$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6433561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No30c79.64$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.571,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes67c78.21$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5399962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes62c75.48$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.992,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72dd…7f98backed Yes27c73.46$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.992917.2%5 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-40.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x36f6…ae14backed No69c72.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011663.8%74 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7be0…53d0backed No47c71.61$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.994751.1%24 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9006…9fb8backed Yes28c68.44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2127037.4%101 W · 169 L+12.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4885…2236backed Yes70c67.94$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.487047.1%33 W · 37 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No19c67.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.112,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6674…7efbbacked Yes31c61.69$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.294233.3%14 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0af…cc7dbacked No35c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214647.8%22 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No62c60$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.23,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3a0…b7a2backed No34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.284546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes31c59.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.75641.1%23 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7782…f35fbacked No47c59.68$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.054746.8%22 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83cd…e218backed Yes52c58.06$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.879448.9%46 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes19c58$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.989,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes64c55$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.613461.2%82 W · 52 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x22a4…13e5backed Yes37c53.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.838543.5%37 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No41c52.01$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.312,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1448149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f25…bee4backed Yes55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.439341.9%39 W · 54 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.254738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a6c…6ad3backed Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked Yes66c49.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9118131.5%57 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes69c49.17$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2523540.9%96 W · 139 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes76c47.96$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.69147.3%43 W · 48 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes24c46.98$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8927328.6%78 W · 195 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No78c46.63$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.515,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes30c46.62$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5929941.1%123 W · 176 L+20.8wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x90e2…fc3fbacked No30c46.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.084148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24b5…d8dbbacked No34c44.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7164…24fabacked No71c41.6$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.457550.7%38 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked No34c40.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5235429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd37f…28bebacked Yes29c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.364440.9%18 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes59c39.86$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.222,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No27c39.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.821,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1044…51bfbacked Yes53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.741136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No31c37.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7188650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac6c…ff17backed Yes69c36.89$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.413756.8%21 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14eb…fdc7backed Yes31c36$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.95933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No72c33.58$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1162555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4876…22e2backed Yes77c32.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.532650%13 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No69c31.88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1657264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x167e…ee43backed Yes75c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.563863.2%24 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No68c29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.724,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No76c26.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15b7…4cdebacked No51c24.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.578661.6%53 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6780…41ccbacked Yes77c20.34$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6827051.1%138 W · 132 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc7b…2e9fbacked Yes64c20.27$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.392744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75fd…73a4backed Yes56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.82366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8699…f6bebacked Yes55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.029440.4%38 W · 56 L+12.4wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+51.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.664960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2751…d0b1backed No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.734346.5%20 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4875…149bbacked No80c18.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.194955.1%27 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.341,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes65c16.73$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.852,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes66c16.58$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.76160.7%37 W · 24 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.