Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48055dab6629ac6b035606227d62061ee52ec67f6bf3d8b5d1f4520ce3a69ff9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 2c | 1,014$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 60c | 450.6$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.42 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 36c | 445.33$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.03 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 7c | 378.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 9c | 349$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 344.85$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 23c | 311.44$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.13 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 66c | 299.61$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.52 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 74c | 250.21$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 30c | 207.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 6c | 202.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 185$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 160.65$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.69 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 8c | 159.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 37c | 156.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.65 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 144.77$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…dd19backed Yes | 13c | 142.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.83 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 43c | 141.8$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 76c | 140.68$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 136.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.07 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 46c | 132$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86f7…1f0abacked No | 31c | 131.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 61c | 129.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 46c | 122.53$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…6dabbacked No | 43c | 121.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 117$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.63 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 113.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 63c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 68c | 107.96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 22c | 101.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf7…1cd7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 19c | 92.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 66c | 90.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 79c | 89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 56c | 87.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Yes | 14c | 83.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 72c | 82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 30c | 79.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 67c | 78.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 62c | 75.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…7f98backed Yes | 27c | 73.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 69c | 72.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 47c | 71.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 28c | 68.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 70c | 67.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 19c | 67.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 31c | 61.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 31c | 59.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 47c | 59.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 52c | 58.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 37c | 53.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 41c | 52.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6c…6ad3backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 69c | 49.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 76c | 47.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 24c | 46.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 46.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 30c | 46.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 30c | 46.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24b5…d8dbbacked No | 34c | 44.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked No | 71c | 41.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 34c | 40.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37f…28bebacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 59c | 39.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 27c | 39.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…51bfbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 31c | 37.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…ff17backed Yes | 69c | 36.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…fdc7backed Yes | 31c | 36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 72c | 33.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4876…22e2backed Yes | 77c | 32.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 69c | 31.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…ee43backed Yes | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 51c | 24.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 77c | 20.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…2e9fbacked Yes | 64c | 20.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…73a4backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…d0b1backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4875…149bbacked No | 80c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 65c | 16.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 66c | 16.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.