Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Houston Cougars
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ff496930f7db0ae6b283a955698721dab0c5028819747dec824fe41c691e2d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Cougarsof Arkansas Razorbacks, Houston Cougars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 33c | 17,372$5,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,646 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Houston Cougars | 68c | 17,148$11,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,511.19 | 123 | 64.2%79 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 25c | 5,543$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 9c | 5,317$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.55 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 10c | 1,374$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.64 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Houston Cougars | 69c | 1,157$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.01 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 8c | 940$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Houston Cougars | 68c | 907$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.13 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Houston Cougars | 70c | 900$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.09 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 31c | 700$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.3 | 294 | 44.6%131 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 10c | 689.65$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.34 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…ac49backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 3c | 675$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Houston Cougars | 69c | 485.51$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.51 | 176 | 50.6%89 W · 87 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Houston Cougars | 68c | 466$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.12 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 16c | 431.03$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.06 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 7c | 427.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 171 | 22.8%39 W · 132 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Houston Cougars | 68c | 411$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.52 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Houston Cougars | 65c | 396$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.44 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab3…5fa4backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 17c | 377.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 9c | 330$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 9c | 239.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 34c | 225$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 310 | 57.4%178 W · 132 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked Houston Cougars | 30c | 130$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.95 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +19.3wins | +0.27per pick | 22cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Houston Cougars | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…3b3cbacked Houston Cougars | 68c | 83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 17c | 72.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83d…367dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 35c | 56.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 490 | 43.1%211 W · 279 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Houston Cougars | 66c | 55.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…8c7abacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 27c | 43.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30df…e573backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 30c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc271…1bfdbacked Houston Cougars | 69c | 23.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Cougars | 78c | 21.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Houston Cougars | 65c | 18.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Houston Cougarsthis page
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Houston Cougars: O/U 144.5Over won
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Houston Cougars: O/U 145.5Over won
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Houston Cougars: O/U 146.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Cougars (-4.5)Houston Cougars won
- Spread: Houston Cougars (-5.5)Houston Cougars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.