TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,249
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,757

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,249 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde24…e804backed No48c431.72$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.46650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdadb…1870backed No4c384.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5258922.8%134 W · 455 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes43c373.87$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.848,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No55c321.71$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.92,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes55c300$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.7332132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed Yes72c284.5$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.1264460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x5675…f6a6backed No51c283.18$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.18458.3%49 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed Yes44c228.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.7531836.8%117 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes45c219.56$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.3510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaac4…efa0backed No14c209.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.679038.9%35 W · 55 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No52c189.9$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.495,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No24c166.5$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5680560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No57c157.61$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.752,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes40c145.55$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.5131936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No53c144.29$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.783,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5e…c962backed No18c137.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.76944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No8c136.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.047,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xcaa2…15eabacked No9c133.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0414135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No15c125.42$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.354,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes52c111.86$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.031,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No13c110$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.24,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No36c102.07$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5857948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed No23c99.6$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9425954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes54c99.01$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No52c99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.363757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes50c97.22$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3242148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1522446.4%104 W · 120 L+31.1wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+35.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No48c92.73$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.132,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes42c85.96$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.555,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes48c80.81$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0256543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No55c80.01$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.371,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes67c74.04$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5420662.1%128 W · 78 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed Yes49c73.86$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9127056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No37c71.35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.514,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked Yes49c68.71$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.0433746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No24c61.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.786,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No51c57.66$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2194552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No50c57.57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No49c54.79$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.794,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No44c53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.324,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed Yes52c50.92$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4453951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.51,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1744465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2616946.7%79 W · 90 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No44c49.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4675546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes53c47.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1439346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes52c47.1$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.617855.1%43 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4525058.4%146 W · 104 L+22.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No36c45.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.251,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No24c44.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7977851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed No49c42.3$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.739848%47 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No61c40.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2526458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes51c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.647738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No53c38.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4458358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No61c36.91$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.71,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No60c36.45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8742754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae5f…bc30backed Yes52c36.36$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.459339.8%37 W · 56 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No60c36.33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.71,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed Yes51c36.21$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.719947.7%95 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x329c…3667backed Yes43c35.16$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1612334.1%42 W · 81 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No57c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6606…4d70backed No57c35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.88466.7%56 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed Yes74c33.03$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5933350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No60c32.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6787629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes71c31.62$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.146,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes41c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7567336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x45e4…e624backed Yes35c30$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+188.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafef…a8b1backed Yes37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdab3…79b1backed Yes52c27.77$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.338347%39 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x38c7…1c86backed Yes52c27.77$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3311844.1%52 W · 66 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed Yes52c27.77$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3324751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes52c27.77$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.337949.4%39 W · 40 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No51c27.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.27,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5579…2db1backed Yes42c26.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3713852.9%73 W · 65 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked No50c25.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9844567%298 W · 147 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8044…38fabacked Yes48c23.86$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.41666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+45.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x194b…2a11backed No50c23.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9628866.3%191 W · 97 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe597…ba75backed No51c23.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb87…63f8backed No64c22.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.713751.4%19 W · 18 L-4.9wins-0.13per pick65cpaid-20.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes70c22.26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.571,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No49c21.36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4765965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes52c20.97$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.976753.7%36 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked Yes48c20.9$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8713351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe39f…c040backed Yes52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.614832.4%48 W · 100 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked No51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.214161.7%87 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.443663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…c62ebacked No56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.25558.2%32 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes71c17.54$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.061,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes76c16.23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.882,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.