TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,314
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,078

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,314 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x935c…fb8fbacked Yes1c1,015$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes58c899.99$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.2560236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes56c532.28$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No41c509$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.141,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No39c504.22$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.9577151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No42c381.4$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.9564021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No43c325.47$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.071,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1cc…6171backed Yes71c323.99$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.7737942.5%161 W · 218 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes58c234.3$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.285,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No42c212.68$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.134,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56aa…9e31backed No47c210.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.941883.3%15 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick68cpaid+26%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No41c209.56$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.444,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No47c208.2$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.65,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd37…9135backed No48c208.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.1617940.8%73 W · 106 L+29.0wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+113.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes25c205.36$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.14,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x987f…b37dbacked Yes54c202.05$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.4110133.7%34 W · 67 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No49c183.49$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.4853951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No51c176.61$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.5512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes56c173.96$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1340337.2%150 W · 253 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes61c171$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.314,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes56c163.5$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.51,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes65c154.68$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5481855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18ec…f311backed No41c153.55$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.584042.5%17 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes63c150.82$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.743,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No44c132.71$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.583,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes49c126.74$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.682,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb26d…73f7backed Yes48c126.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2325261.9%156 W · 96 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed Yes54c125.39$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3128142%118 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes60c123.25$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.41,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7342…d5b4backed No39c122$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.6115966.7%106 W · 53 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes29c119.32$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.64,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No31c117.48$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.511,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No14c117.12$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.722,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No41c114.81$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.472,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No41c111.25$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.645,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6394…485fbacked Yes50c101.69$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514238.1%16 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No19c99.97$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.9895852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes62c96.77$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6082742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde0a…004ebacked Yes56c96.36$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6728368.6%194 W · 89 L-0.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5695…60e9backed Yes53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9519252.1%100 W · 92 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes48c82.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8446148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes62c82.98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.721,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed No41c82.45$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6939543.5%172 W · 223 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes51c81.13$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7bed…bbf5backed No50c79.64$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8311856.8%67 W · 51 L+12.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+31.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes48c78$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.761,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes61c74.15$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.164,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No38c70$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.575,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c69.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9998236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No60c66$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.414,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93f7…c133backed Yes61c65.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4018555.7%103 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9314…db74backed Yes47c63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6126025%65 W · 195 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8958…656dbacked No45c60$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.85967.8%40 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No44c56.94$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7428163.7%179 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e3…5897backed Yes39c56.51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.118431%26 W · 58 L-20.8wins-0.25per pick56cpaid-52.8%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes59c55.93$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3312530.4%38 W · 87 L-8.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5daf…7d98backed Yes57c53.6$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.74438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-2.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes44c51.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.751,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes49c48.76$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2437144.2%164 W · 207 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed No46c43.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2731836.8%117 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No40c42.85$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8640162.6%251 W · 150 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70a9…6f76backed No49c42.84$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223966.7%26 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes60c42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.064,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No45c42$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.199571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes55c40.9$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked No41c40.66$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2418247.3%86 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No40c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed No50c39.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9224751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No52c39.9$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.063,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…443bbacked Yes60c39.56$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.743748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes64c38.97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9428546.3%132 W · 153 L-17.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes65c38.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4146232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No50c37.52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.631,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No40c34.77$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.932,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8547…39abbacked No36c32.9$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0614833.1%49 W · 99 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes61c32.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206240.3%25 W · 37 L-7.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No44c32$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9280560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes62c31.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3854656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes51c30.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.712,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No39c30.9$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9749543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6cb6…d647backed Yes65c30.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No42c30.22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.651,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes52c30.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.712,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa05…9907backed Yes60c30.12$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.076567.7%44 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No42c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.34,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes52c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.742555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0179…d39fbacked Yes57c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+51%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.934935.2%123 W · 226 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c3e…3865backed Yes53c29.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.99176.9%70 W · 21 L+9.6wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No52c29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9864167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes49c28.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.842,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No46c28.07$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.257,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes52c27.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.152,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73e0…e538backed Yes62c27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.747245.8%33 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes56c26.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1513943.9%61 W · 78 L-12.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-25.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x39c3…e155backed Yes57c26.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1525447.6%121 W · 133 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x47e6…c039backed Yes57c26.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1518242.3%77 W · 105 L-19.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No40c25.95$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.622,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf184…d472backed Yes58c25.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.819769.1%67 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.