Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50be364c0ac91eff4273d47a9f3f624274f74dc0e989a6e6ca36a07ad933eefd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x935c…fb8fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,015$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 58c | 899.99$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.25 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 56c | 532.28$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 41c | 509$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.14 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 39c | 504.22$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.95 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 42c | 381.4$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.95 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 43c | 325.47$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.07 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 71c | 323.99$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.77 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 58c | 234.3$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 42c | 212.68$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.13 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56aa…9e31backed No | 47c | 210.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.94 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 209.56$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 208.2$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 48c | 208.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 205.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 54c | 202.05$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.41 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 49c | 183.49$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.48 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 176.61$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 56c | 173.96$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.13 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 61c | 171$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 56c | 163.5$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 65c | 154.68$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed No | 41c | 153.55$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.58 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 63c | 150.82$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.74 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 44c | 132.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.58 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 49c | 126.74$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 48c | 126.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 54c | 125.39$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 60c | 123.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 39c | 122$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.61 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 29c | 119.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 31c | 117.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.51 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 14c | 117.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.72 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 41c | 114.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 41c | 111.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…485fbacked Yes | 50c | 101.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 19c | 99.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 56c | 96.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 48c | 82.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 62c | 82.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 41c | 82.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 81.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 50c | 79.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 48c | 78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 61c | 74.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 61c | 65.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 47c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 44c | 56.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed Yes | 39c | 56.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 59c | 55.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 57c | 53.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 51.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 49c | 48.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 46c | 43.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 40c | 42.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6f76backed No | 49c | 42.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 60c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 45c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 40.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 41c | 40.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 50c | 39.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 52c | 39.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked Yes | 60c | 39.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 64c | 38.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 65c | 38.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 50c | 37.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 40c | 34.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 36c | 32.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 62c | 31.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 51c | 30.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 39c | 30.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…d647backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 42c | 30.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 52c | 30.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed Yes | 60c | 30.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…d39fbacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 53c | 29.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 49c | 28.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 28.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 52c | 27.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 62c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 56c | 26.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 57c | 26.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 57c | 26.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 40c | 25.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 58c | 25.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.