Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x509c0b2ff1fc65be4e051b202f4d4dce61b4a4bf69ac07e6d31b973edd59424b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 1,067$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 23c | 721.91$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.91 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 506.16$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.64 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 380.14$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 299.4$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…3797backed Yes | 42c | 255.39$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.27 | 34 | 97.1%33 W · 1 L | +17.6wins | +0.52per pick | 45cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 83+0.30 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 32c | 247.53$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.94 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 70c | 245.63$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 236.75$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 34c | 232.68$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.65 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 232.52$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 220.68$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.98 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 209.58$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 208.2$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.84 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 24c | 206.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.21 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 79c | 197.43$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.95 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 28c | 183.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.14 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…a808backed Yes | 29c | 174.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.91 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 52c | 165.93$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 34c | 163.53$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.68 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 36c | 150.46$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 31c | 148.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.55 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 142.42$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.49 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 24c | 140.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.46 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 76c | 140$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.8 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 133.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 75c | 132.68$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 40c | 128.42$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 76c | 127$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 122.02$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.53 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…a602backed No | 73c | 116.61$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…485fbacked Yes | 23c | 104.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 97.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 32c | 92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 90$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 24c | 84.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 73c | 82.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 25c | 79.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.56 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 29c | 77.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed No | 65c | 75.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 57c | 72.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 75c | 68.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 67.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 69c | 66.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 63.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 65c | 60.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 26c | 57.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 69c | 55.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 34c | 55.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…c771backed Yes | 21c | 55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +136.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 34c | 52.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…d39fbacked Yes | 25c | 51.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…1f74backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 71c | 49.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 47.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 39c | 46.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 64c | 45.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 29c | 44.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 37c | 41.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 40.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 39.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 76c | 38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 37.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 64c | 37.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed Yes | 36c | 37.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 32c | 35.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…ba41backed No | 68c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 69c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 71c | 30.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed No | 62c | 27.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 68c | 25.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 24.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 45c | 23.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 69c | 21.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 77c | 19.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 78c | 19.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 78c | 19.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 18.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 77c | 18.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…9208backed No | 65c | 16.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 73c | 15.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.