TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Anyone's Legendof Anyone's Legend, EDward Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$71,392
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$93,696

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,392 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Anyone's Legend65c14,731$9,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,167.682,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Anyone's Legend62c5,000$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,90011245.5%51 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed EDward Gaming38c5,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90059554.1%322 W · 273 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed EDward Gaming40c4,686$1,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,874.3281143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked EDward Gaming38c4,000$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.9849940.7%203 W · 296 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x282f…7c4ebacked EDward Gaming39c3,287$1,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,281.8614342%60 W · 83 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Anyone's Legend62c3,000$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,14047455.3%262 W · 212 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed EDward Gaming38c2,540$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.0235443.2%153 W · 201 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7986…baa5backed EDward Gaming32c2,469$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.1821347.9%102 W · 111 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69b1…2687backed EDward Gaming38c2,217$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.4730843.2%133 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd408…e85cbacked Anyone's Legend66c2,062$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.5738462%238 W · 146 L-0.4wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0993…525fbacked EDward Gaming38c1,880$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.295352.8%28 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e5b…2b2dbacked Anyone's Legend62c1,613$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.926155.9%146 W · 115 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x559b…4959backed EDward Gaming33c1,571$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.8823445.7%107 W · 127 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed EDward Gaming21c1,260$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.7837948.3%183 W · 196 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked EDward Gaming39c1,200$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.529738.7%115 W · 182 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed Anyone's Legend61c1,177$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.0513947.5%66 W · 73 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4fc…a926backed Anyone's Legend79c1,014$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.4110248%49 W · 53 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef88…d62cbacked EDward Gaming37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3702055%11 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+33.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked EDward Gaming37c999$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.631,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2405…e055backed Anyone's Legend62c912.57$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.7816654.2%90 W · 76 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16ac…e30dbacked Anyone's Legend62c625.9$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.84475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed EDward Gaming37c557.35$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.221,38545.1%625 W · 760 L-12.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed EDward Gaming38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19096250.1%482 W · 480 L+1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked EDward Gaming39c500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19548847.3%231 W · 257 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5006…48cabacked EDward Gaming38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19010539%41 W · 64 L-8.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-13.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ebf…5a20backed Anyone's Legend61c500$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1952060%12 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb11…7901backed EDward Gaming38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1902737%10 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-29.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x50f4…04d4backed EDward Gaming36c500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc36…d35dbacked EDward Gaming37c500$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1857142.3%30 W · 41 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…2208backed EDward Gaming38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1905328.3%15 W · 38 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf71e…917bbacked Anyone's Legend65c500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.0726765.9%176 W · 91 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb496…1f45backed Anyone's Legend61c499.87$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.955740.4%23 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed Anyone's Legend59c495.73$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.2521051.4%108 W · 102 L+0.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked Anyone's Legend60c479.72$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.226352.4%33 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Anyone's Legend62c478$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.6446050.7%233 W · 227 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed EDward Gaming41c413.22$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.421,04750.3%527 W · 520 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed EDward Gaming40c400$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16064453.9%347 W · 297 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x23d1…52c5backed Anyone's Legend60c377.13$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.854645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ff…abd0backed Anyone's Legend60c371.57$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.6352045%234 W · 286 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked Anyone's Legend61c360$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.435642.4%151 W · 205 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked Anyone's Legend62c339.79$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.7911248.2%54 W · 58 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Anyone's Legend62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.5813046.2%60 W · 70 L-12.1wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-18%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked EDward Gaming35c300$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1560243.4%261 W · 341 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf20b…e27dbacked EDward Gaming34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4134849.1%171 W · 177 L+11.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed EDward Gaming18c285.22$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.341,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4948…08bdbacked EDward Gaming39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10029833.9%101 W · 197 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f3…85debacked Anyone's Legend79c253.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.534360.5%26 W · 17 L+7.1wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+35.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed EDward Gaming35c252.21$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2735442.1%149 W · 205 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed EDward Gaming41c246.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10042143.9%185 W · 236 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781d…201bbacked Anyone's Legend62c241.05$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.614748.3%71 W · 76 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe9cb…f7dbbacked Anyone's Legend62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7635045.1%158 W · 192 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac07…3193backed EDward Gaming40c191$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.42445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53d7…ca8bbacked Anyone's Legend62c190$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.211844.9%53 W · 65 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed EDward Gaming38c183.59$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7052441%215 W · 309 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed EDward Gaming36c182.32$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.026440.6%26 W · 38 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd3d…e430backed Anyone's Legend60c180$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724161%25 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Anyone's Legend73c176.9$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4769741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d3…42e4backed Anyone's Legend63c174.6$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.626440.9%108 W · 156 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeef9…8731backed Anyone's Legend61c167$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1334756.5%196 W · 151 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb627…2d13backed Anyone's Legend61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9351552.6%271 W · 244 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8934…afb3backed Anyone's Legend62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.296650%33 W · 33 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec5…9fe0backed Anyone's Legend62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.294052.5%21 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa87d…ff4dbacked Anyone's Legend64c155.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.193354.5%18 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bc1…3f1cbacked EDward Gaming42c148.76$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8744745.2%202 W · 245 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf671…3dd7backed Anyone's Legend61c143.58$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5643348.7%211 W · 222 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Anyone's Legend62c134$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.141,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2458…bd24backed EDward Gaming39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509341.9%39 W · 54 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Anyone's Legend62c120$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.648852%254 W · 234 L-2.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed EDward Gaming11c113.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5297854.4%532 W · 446 L+48.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee0e…38bbbacked Anyone's Legend65c108.57$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0976047%357 W · 403 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Anyone's Legend62c101.61$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6192354.3%501 W · 422 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1c1…928cbacked Anyone's Legend75c100.13$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1315862.7%99 W · 59 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Anyone's Legend62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3861256.2%344 W · 268 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d28…0d64backed Anyone's Legend61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3915143.7%66 W · 85 L-13.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-19.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4067…6ffabacked EDward Gaming39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395125.5%13 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+47.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a7e…9dc6backed Anyone's Legend61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6446248.9%226 W · 236 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3daf…19ebbacked EDward Gaming39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3915534.8%54 W · 101 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a7e…e0b3backed Anyone's Legend59c99.98$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9915450.6%78 W · 76 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24f5…98d2backed Anyone's Legend74c92$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1210150.5%51 W · 50 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked Anyone's Legend60c87.43$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9738931.9%124 W · 265 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-28.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x160a…43d3backed EDward Gaming40c87.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.973447.1%16 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed EDward Gaming36c85.84$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.021,31049.2%644 W · 666 L-23.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7843…7f7dbacked Anyone's Legend62c80$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.415240.1%61 W · 91 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x179d…26abbacked EDward Gaming39c76.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3053829.9%161 W · 377 L-19.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaf7…be9bbacked Anyone's Legend70c71.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6318844.7%84 W · 104 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed EDward Gaming25c69.79$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4563426%165 W · 469 L-90.0wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-54%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xfa4e…5973backed Anyone's Legend60c66.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6755744%245 W · 312 L-17.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd331…733cbacked Anyone's Legend61c64$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9635848.9%175 W · 183 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df3…b8bebacked EDward Gaming40c62.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Anyone's Legend72c61.49$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.391,17066.2%774 W · 396 L+69.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Anyone's Legend63c61.13$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.771,35651.1%693 W · 663 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb5b…62c7backed Anyone's Legend63c58.73$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7311351.3%58 W · 55 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4924…8fc6backed Anyone's Legend60c51.73$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6911844.9%53 W · 65 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x288d…00eabacked Anyone's Legend62c50.96$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.366254.8%34 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Anyone's Legend62c48.39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3940645.6%185 W · 221 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x201e…1a3bbacked EDward Gaming40c48.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf030…dbbabacked EDward Gaming41c43.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+31.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…5478backed EDward Gaming37c41.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.225547.3%26 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc76e…caa5backed Anyone's Legend62c40.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3231352.4%164 W · 149 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.