Dota2 · resolved market
GamerLegion vs Xtreme Gaming: Draw (1-1)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51b36aa9917c94118a28678a2985eac41c76d764a1ee487c590c3535d2e7377b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x500f…94bfbacked Yes | 52c | 3,567$1,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,854.69 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Yes | 34c | 1,906$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.78 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 1,754$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.84 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 42c | 904.48$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.5 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 50c | 587.75$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.5 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 25c | 559.05$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.57 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 497.33$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.82 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 475.59$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.71 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 75c | 473.53$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.28 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed No | 53c | 381.23$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.69 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 25c | 314.32$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.73 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…946bbacked Yes | 46c | 299.98$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 210 | 43.8%92 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 109.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42d…7cfcbacked Yes | 49c | 103.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked No | 37c | 82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed No | 37c | 81.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked No | 36c | 77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 35c | 66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 34c | 56.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6e…3288backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…dd4cbacked Yes | 49c | 38.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430d…d3e4backed Yes | 55c | 34.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed No | 37c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Yes | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 65c | 22.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 60c | 20.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed No | 52c | 19.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 291 | 43.6%127 W · 164 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GamerLegion vs Xtreme Gaming: Draw (1-1)?this page
- GamerLegion to win 2-0?No won
- Xtreme Gaming to win 2-0?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.