Dota2 · resolved market
Xtreme Gaming to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x379fa15695418a36b96c1b9988ddcc418e27174f76c51274da66bfd608048a4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad2b…2a8ebacked No | 1c | 4,279$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc827…ff0fbacked No | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Yes | 72c | 2,245$1,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.34 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,943$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.26 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 49c | 1,877$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.68 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 51c | 1,836$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.36 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 38c | 1,294$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.08 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,205$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.49 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d24…cf3fbacked Yes | 73c | 1,026$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed No | 38c | 986.85$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…764ebacked No | 63c | 795.73$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.77 | 270 | 60%162 W · 108 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 62c | 705$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.9 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 27c | 612.83$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.52 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 55c | 561.15$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.64 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 51c | 497.33$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.96 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…cfc5backed Yes | 49c | 485.67$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.67 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 423.16$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.86 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 393.61$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.47 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 31c | 275.18$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.89 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 58c | 175.78$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 29c | 167.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.68 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ca…352dbacked Yes | 60c | 165$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Yes | 38c | 164.59$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Yes | 34c | 150.64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.42 | 291 | 43.6%127 W · 164 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes | 34c | 149.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d8…7b0fbacked Yes | 41c | 140$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 55c | 119.87$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 109.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf712…10bcbacked No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed No | 40c | 61.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked No | 36c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…bcb1backed Yes | 58c | 50.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed No | 61c | 46.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c5…f095backed No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 606 | 60.7%368 W · 238 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 393 | 51.1%201 W · 192 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed No | 55c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 55c | 34.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Yes | 70c | 34.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 137 | 64.2%88 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…4b52backed Yes | 73c | 34.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Yes | 39c | 33.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed No | 66c | 32.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Yes | 69c | 29.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42d…7cfcbacked Yes | 70c | 27.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed7…baa3backed Yes | 71c | 19.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 316 | 48.7%154 W · 162 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d7…a1ffbacked No | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Xtreme Gaming to win 2-0?this page
- GamerLegion to win 2-0?No won
- GamerLegion vs Xtreme Gaming: Draw (1-1)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.