CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Hashiras (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #1 Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5273071fedee35ecfad5f49f768647eafeee848b1bc69c75f8233358f3e99924
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hashirasof MANA eSports, Hashiras
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Hashiras | 57c | 1,140$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.01 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed MANA eSports | 51c | 990.79$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.3 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed Hashiras | 49c | 947.07$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.01 | 849 | 58.3%495 W · 354 L | +60.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Hashiras | 51c | 906.56$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…5bb7backed MANA eSports | 48c | 899.99$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Hashiras | 49c | 783.58$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.63 | 157 | 40.8%64 W · 93 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked MANA eSports | 51c | 730.29$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.45 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Hashiras | 49c | 619.98$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.19 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed MANA eSports | 44c | 615.63$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.02 | 404 | 49.8%201 W · 203 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed MANA eSports | 30c | 613.63$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.18 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed MANA eSports | 41c | 543$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.88 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…fd36backed MANA eSports | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 401 | 55.1%221 W · 180 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed MANA eSports | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 146 | 50.7%74 W · 72 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked Hashiras | 48c | 494.23$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…6158backed Hashiras | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 380 | 52.6%200 W · 180 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Hashiras | 68c | 382.82$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.98 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed MANA eSports | 25c | 320.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.19 | 1,618 | 46.8%758 W · 860 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Hashiras | 65c | 284.63$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.25 | 1,088 | 54.2%590 W · 498 L | +39.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed MANA eSports | 46c | 224$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Hashiras | 49c | 204.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.8 | 474 | 47.5%225 W · 249 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Hashiras | 60c | 203$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Hashiras | 67c | 187.47$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed MANA eSports | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 340 | 36.5%124 W · 216 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…dc29backed Hashiras | 52c | 138$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.32 | 486 | 35.4%172 W · 314 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Hashiras | 68c | 122.71$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed MANA eSports | 45c | 118.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533a…89aabacked MANA eSports | 32c | 113$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Hashiras | 71c | 109.8$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked MANA eSports | 30c | 105.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed MANA eSports | 51c | 101.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aae…0da3backed MANA eSports | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 142 | 55.6%79 W · 63 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed MANA eSports | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 807 | 40.3%325 W · 482 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed MANA eSports | 50c | 99.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 677 | 50.2%340 W · 337 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hashiras | 71c | 84.02$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked MANA eSports | 51c | 77.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f39…28dabacked Hashiras | 65c | 76.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MANA eSports | 46c | 65.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 1,513 | 57.2%865 W · 648 L | +65.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked MANA eSports | 50c | 58.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 558 | 43.5%243 W · 315 L | -16.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…3e87backed Hashiras | 75c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 399 | 46.4%185 W · 214 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed MANA eSports | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 917 | 43.7%401 W · 516 L | -35.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Hashiras | 69c | 39.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12a8…8870backed MANA eSports | 35c | 33.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked MANA eSports | 35c | 33.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdd…0ecdbacked Hashiras | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 329 | 56.8%187 W · 142 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked MANA eSports | 40c | 29.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 675 | 47.3%319 W · 356 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe252…5714backed Hashiras | 47c | 25.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 233 | 35.2%82 W · 151 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1040…16cbbacked MANA eSports | 53c | 23.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Hashiras | 72c | 20.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Hashiras | 52c | 20.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 190 | 50%95 W · 95 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fc…9f06backed Hashiras | 75c | 14.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Hashiras (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #1 Group Athis page
- Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Hashiras - Map 1 WinnerHashiras won
- Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Hashiras - Map 2 WinnerHashiras won
- Map Handicap: Hashiras (-1.5) vs MANA eSports (+1.5)Hashiras won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.