UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52a6dbfb47873e8373eac42ccb79fe1e9ed369e547ba2758d856ac4b365fbcb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 46c | 38,641$17,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,774.78 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 53c | 37,159$19,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,579.12 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533c…2658backed Under | 48c | 28,922$13,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,852.18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Over | 54c | 22,041$11,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,138.97 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Under | 46c | 21,694$9,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,977.86 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 54c | 15,750$8,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,245 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Over | 54c | 12,333$6,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,673.18 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 52c | 6,003$3,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,851.72 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 47c | 2,258$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.18 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.02 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…7c83backed Over | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0d…f8bebacked Under | 46c | 819.57$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc387…5a97backed Under | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…99e1backed Over | 54c | 647.11$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.8 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Under | 54c | 556.11$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Over | 54c | 537.04$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.04 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Under | 47c | 531$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.57 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Under | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 54c | 297$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.7 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…cfffbacked Under | 46c | 202.17$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…c31fbacked Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e5…93edbacked Over | 57c | 148.77$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.44 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…b1aebacked Under | 47c | 121$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked Over | 55c | 103.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8acb…6701backed Over | 56c | 101.95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…693cbacked Under | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed Under | 45c | 68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Over | 53c | 61.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce61…8ef6backed Under | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 53c | 52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 47c | 47.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…f3b8backed Under | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 53c | 29.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 25.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f44…bc79backed Over | 55c | 23.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- UFC 330: Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)Chidi Njokuani won
- Will Chidi Njokuani win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Joel Álvarez win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.