Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on January 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5310a89bcbf0bef65bdaba524cb64bb1ecbb023615b9f28012d5a4c890ec8a3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 3,730$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.06 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 26c | 805.16$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.28 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 6c | 650.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 74c | 563.54$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.89 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb63b…6ee0backed Yes | 20c | 319.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…e3e1backed Yes | 65c | 283.68$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.58 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 49c | 274.96$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.47 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 79c | 183$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 68c | 174.64$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.04 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 48c | 131.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 60c | 120$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 37c | 112.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 41c | 105$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc720…8f88backed Yes | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 58c | 98.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 92.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd17…9bfbbacked No | 61c | 89.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd7…6c52backed Yes | 63c | 85.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 29c | 82.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 61c | 73.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f67…0d67backed No | 77c | 60.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 34c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 37c | 53.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9a…796cbacked Yes | 77c | 52.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 34c | 50.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d23…b55bbacked Yes | 24c | 41.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 31c | 40.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x886b…73d1backed Yes | 51c | 39.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1c…da57backed Yes | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 36c | 32.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08c1…7fbebacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…9ffabacked Yes | 38c | 28.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…04e4backed Yes | 66c | 22.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…45b7backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…cf0cbacked Yes | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on January 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 35°F or below on January 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on January 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on January 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on January 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on January 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on January 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.