Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on January 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51068b9f47fc2ca751469d44a9d2f69d3ee454bd440e4bef1302ea9995d5d08a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 3c | 10,973$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.5 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 10c | 7,607$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,812.62 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed Yes | 5c | 7,170$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,822.49 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 10c | 5,550$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,991.21 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 4,884$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,691.27 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 4c | 4,778$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,610.82 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,146$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,019.91 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 26c | 2,009$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,481.33 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7de…d520backed No | 46c | 1,861$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.68 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 18c | 1,392$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.07 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 43c | 990.31$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.77 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 2c | 700$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51a5…956fbacked Yes | 66c | 604.96$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +619.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 38c | 603.5$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.83 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc86a…1f5fbacked No | 20c | 383.46$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 53c | 374.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.82 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 78c | 354.27$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.43 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f67…0d67backed Yes | 66c | 335.47$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.14 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9a…796cbacked Yes | 65c | 295.75$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 35c | 285.35$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.39 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…5cd6backed No | 26c | 243.93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 72c | 225.06$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 13c | 211.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.83 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a1…4b1dbacked No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 24c | 197.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.75 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 24c | 192.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 33c | 188.05$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.28 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…46e0backed Yes | 78c | 183.05$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 182.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.93 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 8c | 170$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 34c | 107.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.29 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 40c | 106.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc720…8f88backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 11c | 98.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 23c | 92.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 29c | 78.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd17…9bfbbacked Yes | 79c | 75.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab2b…1ecabacked Yes | 76c | 71.31$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3de5…c157backed Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked No | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…eb65backed Yes | 76c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 26c | 46.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x249e…047abacked No | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed Yes | 71c | 40.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0999…dd96backed No | 71c | 38.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked No | 52c | 33.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x886b…73d1backed Yes | 72c | 29.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 72c | 26.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c36…7b78backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1c…da57backed Yes | 74c | 25.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 50c | 21.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc572…83e6backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4765…3668backed No | 73c | 16.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked Yes | 75c | 16.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5f…d443backed Yes | 78c | 14.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb7…d9e6backed Yes | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on January 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 35°F or below on January 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on January 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on January 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on January 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on January 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on January 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.