Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53359ea12b938a8ce3a09327ca43ddf6512173efd07cc28e791398eddcb76bf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof RE.Arise, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed RE.Arise | 45c | 17,715$8,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,054.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Team Lynx | 54c | 11,417$6,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,234.89 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed Team Lynx | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1de…21f5backed Team Lynx | 55c | 6,000$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,699.98 | 304 | 52.3%159 W · 145 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed RE.Arise | 42c | 4,757$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked RE.Arise | 43c | 3,881$1,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.92 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…d6d5backed Team Lynx | 75c | 2,817$2,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.32 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed RE.Arise | 22c | 2,139$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed RE.Arise | 42c | 2,133$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.57 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked RE.Arise | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Team Lynx | 52c | 1,713$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.72 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…38e8backed RE.Arise | 4c | 1,584$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 332 | 3%10 W · 322 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed Team Lynx | 79c | 1,567$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.15 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…7bbfbacked RE.Arise | 46c | 1,494$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.24 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Lynx | 65c | 1,181$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.92 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…12c2backed Team Lynx | 57c | 911.17$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.7 | 192 | 51%98 W · 94 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e8…fafcbacked RE.Arise | 45c | 910.75$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.73 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d59…8b19backed RE.Arise | 32c | 909.17$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.02 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Team Lynx | 60c | 900$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.12 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed RE.Arise | 33c | 811.67$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.6 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…bab9backed RE.Arise | 50c | 670.75$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.02 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…10f5backed Team Lynx | 55c | 631.69$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.69 | 189 | 50.8%96 W · 93 L | +10.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7a…8238backed RE.Arise | 45c | 621.22$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.07 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0a…5cc0backed RE.Arise | 44c | 616$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.32 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed RE.Arise | 42c | 599.98$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.99 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked RE.Arise | 45c | 562.57$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.16 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked RE.Arise | 31c | 555.92$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.51 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…babcbacked RE.Arise | 51c | 553.49$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked RE.Arise | 46c | 502.08$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.37 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…ed83backed Team Lynx | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…e27cbacked RE.Arise | 46c | 494.1$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.4 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed RE.Arise | 17c | 484.07$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.39 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…889fbacked RE.Arise | 43c | 461.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed RE.Arise | 44c | 449.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…6ba4backed Team Lynx | 50c | 410$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.1 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked RE.Arise | 48c | 398$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 281 | 45.6%128 W · 153 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48f…e9b9backed RE.Arise | 53c | 384.67$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.88 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Team Lynx | 47c | 373.42$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.91 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Lynx | 74c | 372.93$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.35 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23b5…97e1backed RE.Arise | 22c | 369.71$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…ec6fbacked RE.Arise | 50c | 365$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Team Lynx | 50c | 344.99$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3231…6e75backed RE.Arise | 45c | 308.24$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.23 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb5…819abacked RE.Arise | 45c | 306.51$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.93 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked RE.Arise | 67c | 293.05$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.28 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dea…e294backed RE.Arise | 47c | 281$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.07 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…94bebacked Team Lynx | 68c | 276.91$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.29 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Lynx | 61c | 270$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.13 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked RE.Arise | 46c | 265.41$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.04 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked RE.Arise | 36c | 260.62$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.83 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Team Lynx | 56c | 251.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 421 | 46.6%196 W · 225 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…1799backed Team Lynx | 55c | 250.77$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.85 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…f3fcbacked RE.Arise | 44c | 230$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc269…7841backed RE.Arise | 30c | 227.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…ffe2backed Team Lynx | 54c | 225.56$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.76 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed RE.Arise | 25c | 218.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 500 | 32.2%161 W · 339 L | -47.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Team Lynx | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 437 | 38.4%168 W · 269 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…0c16backed Team Lynx | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…caa8backed Team Lynx | 60c | 153.33$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.33 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Team Lynx | 63c | 140$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 261 | 54.8%143 W · 118 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d34…e654backed RE.Arise | 26c | 134.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa312…9590backed RE.Arise | 45c | 131.11$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Team Lynx | 40c | 130.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.82 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…b97dbacked RE.Arise | 38c | 130.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 207 | 38.6%80 W · 127 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f04…1fb0backed Team Lynx | 61c | 126.67$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…7d5fbacked Team Lynx | 68c | 121.1$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked RE.Arise | 43c | 115.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6983…88c3backed RE.Arise | 47c | 106.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked RE.Arise | 48c | 104.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…a74cbacked RE.Arise | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…d554backed RE.Arise | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked RE.Arise | 32c | 98.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed RE.Arise | 42c | 97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf642…640bbacked RE.Arise | 37c | 94.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed RE.Arise | 45c | 88.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 175 | 37.1%65 W · 110 L | -13.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3038backed Team Lynx | 69c | 87.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 235 | 62.1%146 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba4…f918backed RE.Arise | 23c | 86.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0868…efe8backed RE.Arise | 17c | 86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…ed2bbacked RE.Arise | 37c | 85.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…2e20backed RE.Arise | 47c | 84.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422d…7e39backed Team Lynx | 54c | 83.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…0f71backed Team Lynx | 62c | 80.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Team Lynx | 58c | 80.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed RE.Arise | 36c | 78.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Team Lynx | 65c | 78.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed RE.Arise | 39c | 77.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Team Lynx | 59c | 77.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Team Lynx | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Team Lynx | 68c | 73.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed RE.Arise | 50c | 72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Team Lynx | 58c | 69.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…2cb1backed RE.Arise | 20c | 69.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Team Lynx | 61c | 67.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11f…fe57backed Team Lynx | 68c | 62.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed RE.Arise | 25c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed RE.Arise | 31c | 61.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0396…86babacked Team Lynx | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x626a…3d36backed Team Lynx | 60c | 53.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed RE.Arise | 24c | 50.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | -16.0wins | -0.37per pick | 44cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 24-0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x5abe…d360backed RE.Arise | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Team Lynx (BO3) - EPL Masters 2 Play-In Group BTeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Team Lynx - Game 2 WinnerTeam Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.