TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Lynxof RE.Arise, Team Lynx
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$83,093
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$96,937

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,093 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7bc1…8db4backed RE.Arise45c17,715$8,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,054.51050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Team Lynx54c11,417$6,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,234.8989741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed Team Lynx55c10,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,50047646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed Team Lynx55c6,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,699.9830452.3%159 W · 145 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed RE.Arise42c4,757$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00048057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked RE.Arise43c3,881$1,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,672.9295342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b1f…d6d5backed Team Lynx75c2,817$2,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.327955.7%44 W · 35 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed RE.Arise22c2,139$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46572035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed RE.Arise42c2,133$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.5737745.9%173 W · 204 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked RE.Arise45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90069835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Team Lynx52c1,713$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.7257449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed RE.Arise4c1,584$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.983323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Team Lynx79c1,567$1,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.1551049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2d0…7bbfbacked RE.Arise46c1,494$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.245048%24 W · 26 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Lynx65c1,181$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.9279859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed Team Lynx57c911.17$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.719251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5e8…fafcbacked RE.Arise45c910.75$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.738444%37 W · 47 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d59…8b19backed RE.Arise32c909.17$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.024540%18 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Team Lynx60c900$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.1292056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed RE.Arise33c811.67$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.669132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6d3…bab9backed RE.Arise50c670.75$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.027041.4%29 W · 41 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a56…10f5backed Team Lynx55c631.69$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.6918950.8%96 W · 93 L+10.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b7a…8238backed RE.Arise45c621.22$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.077735.1%27 W · 50 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b0a…5cc0backed RE.Arise44c616$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.322737%10 W · 17 L-4.2wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-32.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed RE.Arise42c599.98$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.9979959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked RE.Arise45c562.57$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.1654058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked RE.Arise31c555.92$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.511,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaec3…babcbacked RE.Arise51c553.49$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2853246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked RE.Arise46c502.08$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.371,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed Team Lynx54c499.99$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23026247.7%125 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d19…e27cbacked RE.Arise46c494.1$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.412646%58 W · 68 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed RE.Arise17c484.07$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3942639.4%168 W · 258 L-39.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x91b9…889fbacked RE.Arise43c461.86$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009145.1%41 W · 50 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec96…f5d7backed RE.Arise44c449.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20037253%197 W · 175 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa20d…6ba4backed Team Lynx50c410$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.114751%75 W · 72 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked RE.Arise48c398$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19328145.6%128 W · 153 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf48f…e9b9backed RE.Arise53c384.67$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.885152.9%27 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked Team Lynx47c373.42$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.9114343.4%62 W · 81 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Lynx74c372.93$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.3589938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23b5…97e1backed RE.Arise22c369.71$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1413044.6%58 W · 72 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfe3…ec6fbacked RE.Arise50c365$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.530%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Team Lynx50c344.99$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.546240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3231…6e75backed RE.Arise45c308.24$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.237657.9%44 W · 32 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cb5…819abacked RE.Arise45c306.51$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.937745.5%35 W · 42 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked RE.Arise67c293.05$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.2853844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dea…e294backed RE.Arise47c281$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.077546.7%35 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked Team Lynx68c276.91$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.296266.1%41 W · 21 L+6.4wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Lynx61c270$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.1356548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked RE.Arise46c265.41$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.041,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked RE.Arise36c260.62$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8366947.1%315 W · 354 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Team Lynx56c251.99$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.8842146.6%196 W · 225 L-1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca9…1799backed Team Lynx55c250.77$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.856743.3%29 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1028…f3fcbacked RE.Arise44c230$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.22147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc269…7841backed RE.Arise30c227.44$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693228.1%9 W · 23 L-5.9wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-42.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x08ee…ffe2backed Team Lynx54c225.56$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.763951.3%20 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed RE.Arise25c218.72$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5150032.2%161 W · 339 L-47.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Team Lynx67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6643738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6c…0c16backed Team Lynx54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1919135.6%68 W · 123 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6204…caa8backed Team Lynx60c153.33$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.332250%11 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa965…7f73backed Team Lynx63c140$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.826154.8%143 W · 118 L+11.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d34…e654backed RE.Arise26c134.16$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.88875%6 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+73.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa312…9590backed RE.Arise45c131.11$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Team Lynx40c130.53$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.8238142%160 W · 221 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x597d…b97dbacked RE.Arise38c130.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020738.6%80 W · 127 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f04…1fb0backed Team Lynx61c126.67$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.910458.7%61 W · 43 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa844…7d5fbacked Team Lynx68c121.1$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.214156.1%23 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked RE.Arise43c115.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.761,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6983…88c3backed RE.Arise47c106.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.84746.8%22 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked RE.Arise48c104.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.212,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72c8…a74cbacked RE.Arise35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3524942.6%106 W · 143 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0a8…d554backed RE.Arise45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4540%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked RE.Arise32c98.15$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4553538.5%206 W · 329 L-26.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed RE.Arise42c97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4424138.6%93 W · 148 L-18.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf642…640bbacked RE.Arise37c94.28$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.541560%9 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed RE.Arise45c88.78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9517537.1%65 W · 110 L-13.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ace…3038backed Team Lynx69c87.1$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.123562.1%146 W · 89 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ba4…f918backed RE.Arise23c86.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208439.3%33 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0868…efe8backed RE.Arise17c86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.724850%24 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4afb…ed2bbacked RE.Arise37c85.69$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.71944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5867…2e20backed RE.Arise47c84.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6725339.1%99 W · 154 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x422d…7e39backed Team Lynx54c83.22$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6112452.4%65 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…0f71backed Team Lynx62c80.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.646662.1%41 W · 25 L+8.7wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+24.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Team Lynx58c80.6$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8591553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed RE.Arise36c78.74$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0597142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Team Lynx65c78.48$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7678516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed RE.Arise39c77.68$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6821344.1%94 W · 119 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Team Lynx59c77.15$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6381345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Team Lynx60c75$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1764547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Team Lynx68c73.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4957455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed RE.Arise50c72$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3647548%228 W · 247 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Team Lynx58c69.46$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4230251.7%156 W · 146 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x604e…2cb1backed RE.Arise20c69.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.564032.5%13 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4cd…c041backed Team Lynx61c67.25$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9713547.4%64 W · 71 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd11f…fe57backed Team Lynx68c62.92$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.035100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+66.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe9b…cbe5backed RE.Arise25c62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.565242.3%22 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5410…dcc7backed RE.Arise31c61.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.057236.1%26 W · 46 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0396…86babacked Team Lynx54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.565451.9%28 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x626a…3d36backed Team Lynx60c53.02$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.216965.2%45 W · 24 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe010…5147backed RE.Arise24c50.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12437%3 W · 40 L-16.0wins-0.37per pick44cpaid-88.8%equal weight24-0.24 edge/pick
0x5abe…d360backed RE.Arise23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.58243.9%36 W · 46 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.