Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Crvena zvezda vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x537db4c8a7f0050fc475937c1e26ba6b57d9dc1ecadc84d9618f53c62f5f6121
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 66c | 5,922$3,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,031.3 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 5,680$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.22 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Over | 6c | 2,382$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.82 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 5c | 1,700$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361b…74febacked Over | 39c | 1,617$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.47 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 32c | 1,552$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.55 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Over | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d2…7babbacked Under | 57c | 1,158$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.32 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 58c | 1,115$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.61 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc5…e563backed Over | 43c | 1,038$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.44 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Over | 21c | 930.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Under | 79c | 918.74$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.36 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d0…2fefbacked Under | 77c | 912.4$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.46 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 40c | 866.41$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.2 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 808.68$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.36 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…0dedbacked Over | 26c | 662.38$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.22 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 4c | 512.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Under | 61c | 499.99$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…c5e1backed Under | 80c | 245.21$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b9…c40bbacked Over | 8c | 173.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…481bbacked Under | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 60c | 121$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 27c | 114.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 38c | 108.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 18c | 77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 19c | 70.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 67c | 52.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Under | 66c | 43.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 61c | 39.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 65c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaba…cf38backed Under | 67c | 36.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 59c | 35.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 63c | 32.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 35c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 63c | 22.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 66c | 22.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: O/U 3.5this page
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: FC Viktoria Plzeň O/U 2.5Under won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: O/U 4.5Under won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Viktoria Plzeň (-1.5)FK Crvena zvezda won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-1.5)FK Crvena zvezda won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-2.5)FK Crvena zvezda won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.