TailMyPicks

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Tennis · resolved market

Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Rio Noguchi

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Francesco Maestrelliof Francesco Maestrelli, Rio Noguchi
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,167
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,699

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,167 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x160b…4296backed Francesco Maestrelli76c3,993$3,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.091,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xae51…1d03backed Francesco Maestrelli34c3,649$1,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,407.0915554.2%84 W · 71 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid0%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Rio Noguchi59c2,917$1,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,711.958,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Rio Noguchi24c2,200$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52893055.8%519 W · 411 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Francesco Maestrelli30c1,500$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0506,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Francesco Maestrelli67c1,136$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.774,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Francesco Maestrelli69c1,016$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.325,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Rio Noguchi23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23085634.2%293 W · 563 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef29…2f1ebacked Francesco Maestrelli79c886.32$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.571,11145.3%503 W · 608 L-35.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c3a…eb16backed Rio Noguchi24c881.99$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.867320.5%15 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Rio Noguchi24c839.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20023429.9%70 W · 164 L-1.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Francesco Maestrelli49c822.53$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.531,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47c6…be32backed Rio Noguchi61c796.46$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.8412852.3%67 W · 61 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6c3…55a3backed Rio Noguchi49c716.99$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.2814835.8%53 W · 95 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Rio Noguchi41c690.91$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.374,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe54d…fea1backed Francesco Maestrelli76c683.83$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.123253.1%17 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Rio Noguchi23c659.49$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9997141.4%402 W · 569 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Francesco Maestrelli66c642.68$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.774,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Francesco Maestrelli74c626.31$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.0911,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee84…becbbacked Rio Noguchi12c606.82$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8323942.7%102 W · 137 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Francesco Maestrelli66c524.64$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.778,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Francesco Maestrelli80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1009,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb575…d35bbacked Rio Noguchi28c453.57$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12730235.1%106 W · 196 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88ff…78aebacked Rio Noguchi15c413.33$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6215928.9%46 W · 113 L-10.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-32.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Rio Noguchi10c412.97$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3538931.4%122 W · 267 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Francesco Maestrelli51c362.65$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.4843950.8%223 W · 216 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f6a…9888backed Rio Noguchi48c339.85$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.451,22255%672 W · 550 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc20f…ab16backed Rio Noguchi23c324.3$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.591540%6 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95c5…d5d3backed Rio Noguchi70c300$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21060158.6%352 W · 249 L+2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1a…e943backed Rio Noguchi23c297$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3121524.7%53 W · 162 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x010c…e732backed Francesco Maestrelli71c283.56$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.562839.3%11 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Rio Noguchi58c259.57$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15084963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf753…bcfebacked Rio Noguchi25c252.46$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6353736.9%198 W · 339 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Francesco Maestrelli30c250$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17532935%115 W · 214 L-1.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Francesco Maestrelli59c226.99$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.022,08544.5%928 W · 1,157 L-51.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Francesco Maestrelli51c212.4$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.0534847.1%164 W · 184 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…5715backed Francesco Maestrelli79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4210234.3%35 W · 67 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Rio Noguchi22c181.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.65,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Rio Noguchi23c166.67$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.331,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95a3…cc1bbacked Francesco Maestrelli31c162.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7214245.8%65 W · 77 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Rio Noguchi23c151$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.112,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Francesco Maestrelli78c131.73$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.981,02157.8%590 W · 431 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f64…3633backed Francesco Maestrelli77c130$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4299249.4%490 W · 502 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7067…38dbbacked Francesco Maestrelli29c128.21$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.038347%39 W · 44 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Rio Noguchi71c110.65$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.566,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Francesco Maestrelli64c107.73$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.191,62652.7%857 W · 769 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x530b…244fbacked Rio Noguchi20c106.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.583735.1%13 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Francesco Maestrelli35c106$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8137645.7%172 W · 204 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Rio Noguchi28c105.02$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8592145.2%416 W · 505 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Francesco Maestrelli79c101.27$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2759965.8%394 W · 205 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d18…6f62backed Francesco Maestrelli76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2456062.5%350 W · 210 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Francesco Maestrelli52c91.25$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.814849.3%73 W · 75 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Rio Noguchi22c90.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,48535.9%893 W · 1,592 L-28.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Francesco Maestrelli64c83.04$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.266,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Rio Noguchi19c78.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.852,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Francesco Maestrelli77c75$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.373,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e02…b178backed Rio Noguchi21c71.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.793349.6%32 W · 302 L-16.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc4b…63c7backed Francesco Maestrelli56c71.38$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.713339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37f1…19a0backed Francesco Maestrelli71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4251736.9%191 W · 326 L-39.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x150c…add3backed Francesco Maestrelli79c63.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6720670.4%145 W · 61 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8644…ad01backed Francesco Maestrelli78c59.26$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0426049.2%128 W · 132 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2920…a1d3backed Francesco Maestrelli50c54$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2714262.7%89 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb354…655ebacked Francesco Maestrelli43c50.27$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.632927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc5a9…0c9abacked Francesco Maestrelli53c45$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.112464.5%80 W · 44 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Francesco Maestrelli66c41.47$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0557447.7%274 W · 300 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bf…a572backed Rio Noguchi75c40.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1719977.4%154 W · 45 L+11.0wins+0.06per pick72cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Francesco Maestrelli76c39.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.471,12551.1%575 W · 550 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f1f…00a7backed Francesco Maestrelli80c37.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.52080%16 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0593…9712backed Francesco Maestrelli35c31$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.173145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8cd…ba81backed Francesco Maestrelli46c30.43$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4347431.9%151 W · 323 L-21.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Rio Noguchi36c28.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3183047%390 W · 440 L-16.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe510…3535backed Rio Noguchi79c26.38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8411473.7%84 W · 30 L-0.5wins0.00per pick74cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b4d…dd64backed Francesco Maestrelli42c25.34$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.74257.1%24 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf43f…3b20backed Francesco Maestrelli40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1511338.9%44 W · 69 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x782d…8211backed Francesco Maestrelli51c22.2$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8470456.8%400 W · 304 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Francesco Maestrelli59c21.37$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.77,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdff6…0918backed Francesco Maestrelli79c21$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4749857%284 W · 214 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Francesco Maestrelli77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.642353.7%227 W · 196 L-1.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked Rio Noguchi68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.688273.5%648 W · 234 L+19.8wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x697e…9904backed Francesco Maestrelli74c19.58$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.098245.1%37 W · 45 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe10f…e8bbbacked Francesco Maestrelli80c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7518572.4%134 W · 51 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b54…76eabacked Francesco Maestrelli60c16.82$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.791553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.