TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Makarska: Miriam Bulgaru vs Noma Noha Akugue

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noma Noha Akugueof Miriam Bulgaru, Noma Noha Akugue
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,776
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,378

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,776 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x42c9…9623backed Noma Noha Akugue78c9,116$7,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,044.74,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4064…5f1ebacked Miriam Bulgaru27c7,379$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,960.1228039.3%110 W · 170 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Miriam Bulgaru21c7,363$1,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,552.978,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30d5…36bfbacked Miriam Bulgaru18c5,100$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91715225%38 W · 114 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-29.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked Miriam Bulgaru22c5,076$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10041645.4%189 W · 227 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Noma Noha Akugue76c4,858$3,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.4611,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Noma Noha Akugue76c4,312$3,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.288,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Noma Noha Akugue78c2,309$1,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.556,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Noma Noha Akugue77c2,102$1,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.743,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x237e…a5f0backed Miriam Bulgaru22c1,852$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.3319938.2%76 W · 123 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Noma Noha Akugue70c1,555$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.564,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4698…d7a5backed Noma Noha Akugue77c1,482$1,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.3553655.4%297 W · 239 L-28.6wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Noma Noha Akugue78c1,322$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.925,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Miriam Bulgaru23c1,136$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.651,12551.1%575 W · 550 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Noma Noha Akugue76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2409,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Noma Noha Akugue70c937.79$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.053,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Miriam Bulgaru25c863.19$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.711,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Miriam Bulgaru23c800$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1844,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74bd…d371backed Miriam Bulgaru12c697.28$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2142125.7%108 W · 313 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf706…f685backed Noma Noha Akugue61c639.34$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.3415261.2%93 W · 59 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Miriam Bulgaru21c612$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.524,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef29…2f1ebacked Miriam Bulgaru20c564.19$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.381,11145.3%503 W · 608 L-35.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Noma Noha Akugue75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12537944.6%169 W · 210 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Noma Noha Akugue76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1204,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Miriam Bulgaru23c374$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.0273748%354 W · 383 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Noma Noha Akugue75c354.82$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.412,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2409…215ebacked Noma Noha Akugue71c354.39$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.3924450.8%124 W · 120 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Noma Noha Akugue75c353$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.251,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Miriam Bulgaru30c348.32$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.364,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Noma Noha Akugue78c334.13$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.612,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf709…7697backed Miriam Bulgaru25c300$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758725.3%22 W · 65 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+54%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ad8…b8dbbacked Miriam Bulgaru21c283$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.436051.7%31 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Noma Noha Akugue76c259.74$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.341,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebf6…e855backed Noma Noha Akugue77c257.27$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.17540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-45.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Miriam Bulgaru24c255.43$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.31,03150.3%519 W · 512 L+40.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Miriam Bulgaru25c244.6$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.262,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Noma Noha Akugue58c234.69$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.067,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Miriam Bulgaru25c232.16$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.041,36338.3%522 W · 841 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87d1…3744backed Miriam Bulgaru44c225$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991,10466.9%739 W · 365 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Miriam Bulgaru17c200.63$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6230544.3%135 W · 170 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffef…dabfbacked Miriam Bulgaru20c190$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3815754.8%86 W · 71 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc75f…d7f6backed Noma Noha Akugue75c160$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4020764.7%134 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba4…6de0backed Noma Noha Akugue78c155.09$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7228048.9%137 W · 143 L-14.9wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Noma Noha Akugue79c153.05$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.736,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3088…2391backed Miriam Bulgaru21c152.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.139151.6%47 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Miriam Bulgaru25c148.84$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9157842.4%245 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6195…388abacked Miriam Bulgaru23c139$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9718850%94 W · 94 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x962e…1d75backed Noma Noha Akugue79c137.97$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9740161.1%245 W · 156 L+0.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe24e…eecebacked Miriam Bulgaru22c131.82$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2987854.7%480 W · 398 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66ac…5e75backed Miriam Bulgaru22c131.82$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2994255.8%526 W · 416 L+19.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc369…b1ccbacked Noma Noha Akugue76c121.05$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0539254.1%212 W · 180 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Miriam Bulgaru21c120$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.237645.7%172 W · 204 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Miriam Bulgaru26c118.54$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.016,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xebb7…4736backed Miriam Bulgaru26c115.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014949%73 W · 76 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Miriam Bulgaru26c111.85$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0850340%201 W · 302 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d07…b9febacked Miriam Bulgaru20c110.78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.53208.8%28 W · 292 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-64.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18a7…206cbacked Miriam Bulgaru22c109.65$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7585637.7%323 W · 533 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed Miriam Bulgaru23c106.97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.658453.1%310 W · 274 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Noma Noha Akugue74c106$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.567,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0813…41e1backed Noma Noha Akugue75c106$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.537158.8%218 W · 153 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe857…7b3bbacked Miriam Bulgaru19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2083823.2%194 W · 644 L-58.0wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-26.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Miriam Bulgaru25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2538947.3%184 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Miriam Bulgaru50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,34949.8%672 W · 677 L-6.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Miriam Bulgaru30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.86,44946.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L-42.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Miriam Bulgaru50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,72552.2%901 W · 824 L-8.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Miriam Bulgaru22c88$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.365,41648.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L+14.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Miriam Bulgaru21c86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.061,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Miriam Bulgaru19c80.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4839845.5%181 W · 217 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Noma Noha Akugue77c80.05$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.648,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Miriam Bulgaru25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,48535.9%893 W · 1,592 L-28.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Noma Noha Akugue76c75$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.81,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1861…408dbacked Noma Noha Akugue74c74$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2444851.6%231 W · 217 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62a1…0827backed Miriam Bulgaru18c70$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.67160.6%43 W · 28 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked Miriam Bulgaru25c70$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.58245.1%37 W · 45 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x66e4…5583backed Miriam Bulgaru24c69$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.314365.1%28 W · 15 L+6.1wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7fed…9664backed Miriam Bulgaru29c68.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016047.5%76 W · 84 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x985d…33c9backed Miriam Bulgaru24c65.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161,30036.9%480 W · 820 L-34.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d1…439ebacked Miriam Bulgaru21c60.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.818755.2%48 W · 39 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b6b…ec86backed Miriam Bulgaru33c60.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,06231.8%338 W · 724 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Miriam Bulgaru19c60.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.53,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cd6…3806backed Noma Noha Akugue78c60.25$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9616354%88 W · 75 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b81…88e7backed Noma Noha Akugue77c54.79$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.623658.1%137 W · 99 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Noma Noha Akugue71c48.59$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.093,22040.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b7…297bbacked Miriam Bulgaru21c48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.084148.8%20 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4def…06e6backed Noma Noha Akugue79c37.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.875117.6%9 W · 42 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2417…d2a4backed Noma Noha Akugue54c35.44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.444748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e1…9bc1backed Miriam Bulgaru37c34.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7878350.3%394 W · 389 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Noma Noha Akugue75c33.92$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.481,06557.4%611 W · 454 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a9d…3d93backed Noma Noha Akugue79c31.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.651291.7%11 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick69cpaid+35.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b6f…aab3backed Miriam Bulgaru35c31.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1114360.1%86 W · 57 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9a0…6e74backed Noma Noha Akugue78c28.28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.147376.7%56 W · 17 L+0.2wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Noma Noha Akugue75c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.253,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7422…8a59backed Noma Noha Akugue80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.087546.7%35 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Noma Noha Akugue77c22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.061,77648.6%863 W · 913 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7891…c020backed Noma Noha Akugue78c21.05$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.617062.4%106 W · 64 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Noma Noha Akugue73c19.7$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.321,88048.5%912 W · 968 L+8.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbc9f…2ca3backed Noma Noha Akugue79c18.1$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.8560%3 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick77cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.