Euroleague · resolved market
KK Crvena Zvezda vs. Valencia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53e39e247c0744f0f8caaa41ff65eeb52cbd78c2717b4d205084b2ac03dc867d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Valenciaof KK Crvena Zvezda, Valencia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d11…c449backed Valencia | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 60c | 3,600$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 58c | 1,438$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.59 | 275 | 57.5%158 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4408…1b6abacked Valencia | 40c | 1,340$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…2579backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 42c | 1,339$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 60c | 1,049$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.27 | 148 | 47.3%70 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 31c | 943.42$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.16 | 145 | 42.1%61 W · 84 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Valencia | 42c | 866.67$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 55c | 862.18$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.39 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 19c | 679.44$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.89 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 35c | 536$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.04 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Valencia | 72c | 502$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.35 | 181 | 44.2%80 W · 101 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4545…771fbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 10c | 464.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Valencia | 72c | 458.46$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.28 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Valencia | 61c | 444.03$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.81 | 316 | 51.6%163 W · 153 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Valencia | 54c | 337.51$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.83 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Valencia | 73c | 329.02$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Valencia | 64c | 327.34$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.84 | 114 | 55.3%63 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Valencia | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 36c | 281.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Valencia | 44c | 227.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.95 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0756…afecbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 45c | 221$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Valencia | 71c | 190$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 53c | 186$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Valencia | 70c | 162$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Valencia | 64c | 148.37$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 122 | 68.9%84 W · 38 L | +15.5wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Valencia | 75c | 147$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 31c | 130.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 369 | 39.8%147 W · 222 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 20c | 123.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 542 | 51.5%279 W · 263 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 35c | 117.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 59c | 105.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…02aabacked Valencia | 48c | 104.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…2f9cbacked Valencia | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Valencia | 41c | 94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 59c | 92.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 435 | 43.7%190 W · 245 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f3…642dbacked Valencia | 43c | 85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Valencia | 75c | 79.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 60c | 79.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 314 | 46.2%145 W · 169 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 57c | 76.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 58c | 74.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 27c | 72.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 62c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 41.7%50 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Valencia | 80c | 57.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Valencia | 41c | 44.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…2b8abacked Valencia | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 60c | 39.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…e4ebbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 39c | 31.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Valencia | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 59c | 22.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 53c | 22.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Valencia | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 59c | 18.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.