South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Boca Juniors end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53e86708157d15efc0d507098036300cba9459e44e1f2a3c6fbd36d93f244085
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Yes | 28c | 19,668$5,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,481.08 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 66c | 14,493$9,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,965.24 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 72c | 4,543$3,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.57 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 2,896$2,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.93 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…920fbacked Yes | 32c | 2,183$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 75c | 2,124$1,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.37 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 72c | 1,991$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.38 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 32c | 1,754$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.2 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | +13.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…6112backed No | 68c | 1,348$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddaf…3de6backed Yes | 32c | 1,346$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…f128backed Yes | 28c | 857.02$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.97 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 67c | 804.84$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.66 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed No | 68c | 795.53$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.57 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc195…4f19backed Yes | 26c | 439.21$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ca…3748backed Yes | 26c | 365.24$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 27c | 354.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 22c | 338.41$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 36c | 324.9$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.37 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 73c | 294.54$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.91 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73f4…a16fbacked Yes | 33c | 290.85$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5345…d793backed Yes | 33c | 289.77$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 11c | 284.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 72c | 272.43$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Yes | 25c | 260.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked Yes | 26c | 191.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…77eebacked Yes | 27c | 184.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked No | 72c | 160.26$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1579backed Yes | 33c | 145.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -63%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 40c | 144.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 67c | 132.12$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…0d7ebacked Yes | 24c | 119.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked No | 70c | 110.61$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 110.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 26c | 110.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 66c | 108.74$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Yes | 20c | 104.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa223…0894backed Yes | 47c | 103$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Yes | 33c | 98.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked No | 68c | 98.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 189 | 59.3%112 W · 77 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 32c | 95.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 20c | 86.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0796…8264backed Yes | 28c | 85.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 62c | 82.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 25c | 76.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f7…1b73backed Yes | 26c | 73.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 20c | 72.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 68c | 68.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 68c | 66.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x458d…8a59backed Yes | 22c | 65.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…f078backed Yes | 34c | 56.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 77c | 54.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a83…9516backed Yes | 28c | 51.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed No | 72c | 46.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed No | 74c | 39.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc29c…e1a6backed Yes | 35c | 38.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2535…d90ebacked Yes | 32c | 33.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked No | 73c | 32.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 79c | 30.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 67c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 64c | 29.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 60c | 28.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 74c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 258 | 64.3%166 W · 92 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 68c | 24.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 72c | 19.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed No | 76c | 17.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 76c | 15.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed No | 72c | 14.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 76c | 14.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA River Plate vs. CA Boca Juniors end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-04-19?Yes won
- Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.