NHL · resolved market
Will Ilya Sorokin win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53f5957885fd35f4f5e6c57ca31f8848bfe3a79869bb4300f03f15bd4716e871
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ee7…37f0backed Yes | 44c | 647.71$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.31 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +49%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…a587backed Yes | 50c | 520$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0b…4857backed Yes | 67c | 500$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 5c | 399.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…7defbacked Yes | 40c | 386.84$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.9 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 58c | 354.79$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.13 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 57c | 298.12$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.17 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 50c | 247.53$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.2 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 51c | 208$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.75 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 50c | 169.65$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 44c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.55 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 148$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7a36backed Yes | 23c | 139.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdf…8573backed Yes | 9c | 139.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 50c | 102.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd58…18f9backed No | 44c | 95.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed No | 57c | 87.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 52c | 77.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…2525backed Yes | 25c | 74.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 18c | 69.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 68 | 11.8%8 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e89…7c23backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 56c | 64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…ecf3backed No | 44c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 59c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 61c | 50.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…2b47backed Yes | 62c | 32.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd260…7c65backed Yes | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3526…4a4cbacked Yes | 60c | 24.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ilya Sorokin win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy?this page
- Will Andrei Vasilevskiy win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy?Yes won
- Will Jeremy Swayman win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy?No won
- Will Scott Wedgewood win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy?No won
- Will Spencer Knight win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.