MLB · resolved market
Royals vs. Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53f991204bedf29e7ce7e5959f02a6b193bc43a470eb6f2ebf7823e0315c797a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Royalsof Royals, Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8e1…77bfbacked Astros | 52c | 20,000$10,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,395.62 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Royals | 48c | 11,517$5,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,988.97 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Astros | 5c | 2,878$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.28 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524a…346fbacked Royals | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Royals | 48c | 1,890$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.94 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Royals | 47c | 1,408$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.28 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Royals | 48c | 1,094$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.88 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Royals | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Astros | 10c | 940.13$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Astros | 2c | 534.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Astros | 53c | 508.23$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.36 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Royals | 46c | 494.09$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.81 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Astros | 52c | 405.96$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.65 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Royals | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Royals | 47c | 399.97$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.98 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Royals | 51c | 344.78$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.44 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Astros | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Royals | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…021fbacked Astros | 52c | 247.2$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.54 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Royals | 48c | 238.88$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.22 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Royals | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Royals | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Royals | 49c | 204.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.51 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Royals | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…cfddbacked Astros | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a91…e0aebacked Astros | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Royals | 48c | 170.12$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.46 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe38…1f16backed Astros | 54c | 164.11$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.62 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Astros | 52c | 153.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Royals | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Astros | 23c | 136.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Royals | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Royals | 48c | 124.14$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Royals | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Royals | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Royals | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.07 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7b…447dbacked Astros | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…4bc2backed Astros | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Royals | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Royals | 49c | 66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Astros | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Astros | 53c | 56.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Royals | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…88bfbacked Astros | 51c | 50.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…b028backed Astros | 52c | 49.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Royals | 48c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba3…c720backed Royals | 49c | 45.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfb…5ce8backed Astros | 52c | 45.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Astros | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Astros | 29c | 44.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Astros | 54c | 43.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c8…2102backed Royals | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Royals | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Astros | 43c | 35.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Royals | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd6…2f24backed Royals | 50c | 35.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 56cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…5321backed Royals | 50c | 33.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16d…2fdbbacked Astros | 51c | 33.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c2…88cdbacked Royals | 51c | 33.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb2…620cbacked Astros | 53c | 32.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…a91ebacked Royals | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Royals | 55c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Astros | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…cad9backed Royals | 51c | 29.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x638c…607ebacked Royals | 48c | 29.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…22ffbacked Astros | 51c | 29.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc277…70c0backed Astros | 54c | 29.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490d…472bbacked Royals | 48c | 27.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Royals | 70c | 26.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Royals | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38eb…9cdcbacked Royals | 48c | 25.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…d2e3backed Astros | 54c | 24.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…01eabacked Royals | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…abb7backed Astros | 51c | 23.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eff…4ba2backed Astros | 54c | 22.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…d0cabacked Royals | 48c | 22.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Royals | 62c | 21.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.