Movies · resolved market
Will Zoe Saldaña win Best Supporting Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54652f5776132542569af5c3a4119116fcf76ad31f6d2cd928db7735127ae4f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd951…0c1dbacked Yes | 70c | 2,457$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 28c | 2,237$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.62 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 30c | 2,182$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.15 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 69c | 1,222$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.57 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed No | 31c | 1,140$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Yes | 74c | 1,067$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.59 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 26c | 795$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.7 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 28c | 682$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.36 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc04d…69e7backed Yes | 73c | 622.91$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 71c | 555$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.95 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 69c | 347.15$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.62 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 72c | 332$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.22 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 70c | 304.26$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.41 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…e78bbacked Yes | 70c | 257.73$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d1…3841backed Yes | 74c | 252$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…554fbacked Yes | 74c | 215.43$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 28c | 200.68$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd125…30e7backed Yes | 72c | 165$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed No | 30c | 140$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 71c | 130$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2625…b2f8backed Yes | 76c | 119$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 71c | 117.02$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed Yes | 72c | 110.47$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x501d…ccd1backed No | 28c | 94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 71c | 85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 28c | 79.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80f…be51backed No | 28c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…c3ddbacked Yes | 70c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…86c7backed Yes | 76c | 42.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x111f…af00backed Yes | 73c | 23.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zoe Saldaña win Best Supporting Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?this page
- Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?No won
- Will Margaret Qualley win Best Supporting Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.