NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54ccb97b480db4e8d8abca82f6511e4da28b719e54d6fa607027398766bf5b65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 8,000$4,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,799.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Over | 48c | 4,500$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 47c | 3,166$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.83 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Under | 52c | 953.02$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.02 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Over | 47c | 808.85$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.16 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 611.86$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.81 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Under | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 382.22$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.03 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 255.68$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.26 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 251$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.27 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 206.05$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 364 | 23.4%85 W · 279 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 50c | 131.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf256…a93fbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Over | 50c | 96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Under | 51c | 77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…5431backed Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 224 | 67.9%152 W · 72 L | +13.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 47c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 50c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…2ca4backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 54c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0e62backed Over | 50c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Over | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Over | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f8…148fbacked Over | 50c | 21.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…3a67backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Nets won
- Nets vs. CelticsNets won
- Nets vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineNets won
- Spread: Celtics (-14.5)Nets won
- Spread: Celtics (-15.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.