NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Mavericks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54e6a2a5793ff588202920f65de8a090dc668181ed86a0f6895a252546afbade
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Raptors, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Raptors | 16c | 15,150$2,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,464.5 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Raptors | 15c | 7,013$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.94 | 498 | 49.4%246 W · 252 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…ae48backed Raptors | 18c | 5,543$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Raptors | 0c | 5,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 335 | 0%0 W · 335 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Raptors | 1c | 3,900$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 878 | 3%26 W · 852 L | -22.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Raptors | 18c | 3,000$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.97 | 406 | 27.8%113 W · 293 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…3070backed Raptors | 8c | 1,906$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Raptors | 17c | 1,602$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.37 | 377 | 34%128 W · 249 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Raptors | 17c | 1,197$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.91 | 283 | 41.7%118 W · 165 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Raptors | 2c | 1,144$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 550 | 2.5%14 W · 536 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Raptors | 17c | 1,130$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.02 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Raptors | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 364 | 23.4%85 W · 279 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…56a3backed Raptors | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 321 | 30.2%97 W · 224 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Raptors | 17c | 958.39$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.6 | 777 | 45%350 W · 427 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed Raptors | 1c | 750$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 750 | 2%15 W · 735 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Raptors | 6c | 740$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 143 | 4.9%7 W · 136 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Raptors | 10c | 571.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…06c2backed Raptors | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,888 | 37.3%704 W · 1,184 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…1adbbacked Raptors | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 28cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Raptors | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x221f…6be8backed Raptors | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7662…356bbacked Raptors | 16c | 426.34$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 457 | 43.3%198 W · 259 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…aae3backed Raptors | 15c | 404.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Raptors | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…0898backed Raptors | 19c | 369.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +125.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Raptors | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 236 | 46.6%110 W · 126 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Raptors | 15c | 263$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x433b…58debacked Raptors | 16c | 257.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Raptors | 16c | 228.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 129 | 38%49 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…f191backed Raptors | 37c | 170$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Raptors | 16c | 155.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865e…0201backed Raptors | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Raptors | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 532 | 50.4%268 W · 264 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…30b4backed Raptors | 18c | 122.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 41cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa1…345fbacked Raptors | 18c | 117.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…bc97backed Raptors | 16c | 115.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdccd…6047backed Mavericks | 64c | 114$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0101…7324backed Raptors | 36c | 114$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f3…724dbacked Mavericks | 63c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de1…bbb3backed Mavericks | 71c | 103$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad11…6b73backed Raptors | 29c | 103$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1d…3abcbacked Mavericks | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7109…721fbacked Raptors | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Raptors | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Raptors | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 388 | 45.9%178 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…c3f5backed Raptors | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 157 | 41.4%65 W · 92 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af5…9d48backed Raptors | 36c | 97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…edd6backed Mavericks | 64c | 97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b5…0dc3backed Raptors | 28c | 96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a0…51e1backed Mavericks | 72c | 96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…3917backed Raptors | 18c | 94.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c5…9e72backed Raptors | 36c | 87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…4ab6backed Mavericks | 64c | 87$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…0a64backed Mavericks | 64c | 83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1113…b7dbbacked Raptors | 36c | 83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Raptors | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f2…142bbacked Mavericks | 71c | 79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2311…b6a8backed Raptors | 29c | 79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543a…2418backed Mavericks | 64c | 77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf645…69e5backed Raptors | 36c | 77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc8…1a55backed Raptors | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57b…d3dabacked Mavericks | 64c | 73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe186…9e0abacked Raptors | 36c | 73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc537…3172backed Raptors | 17c | 70.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab1…0f05backed Mavericks | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d2…18fdbacked Raptors | 18c | 55.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.