Ukraine · resolved market
Belarus x Ukraine military clash by Sep 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54ff6bab4236cf70865d670fb863815c608e86e3ab776343b58bf9630d15586e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 5,045$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.87 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6921…64cabacked Yes | 11c | 2,118$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 6c | 1,720$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.56 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 3c | 1,599$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…59d0backed Yes | 14c | 1,409$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.97 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 4c | 1,056$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -70%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,056$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa136…2965backed Yes | 15c | 994$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 11c | 922.54$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 3c | 899.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 12c | 851.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 11c | 806.43$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.42 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 8c | 770.22$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6da…2ad1backed Yes | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +454.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fd83backed Yes | 10c | 683.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 8c | 670.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +85%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68f3…f4cbbacked Yes | 2c | 635.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 11c | 583.74$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed Yes | 8c | 470.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.68per pick | 7cpaid | +1,189.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 19c | 470.35$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e2…73f9backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8272…14bbbacked Yes | 3c | 433.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 7c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 393.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7470…a1ccbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f9…bb57backed Yes | 8c | 250.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…4236backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 11c | 231.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 10c | 219.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…4228backed Yes | 10c | 217.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +7.0wins | +0.28per pick | 40cpaid | +219.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…0698backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd1…b557backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0513…2157backed Yes | 13c | 100.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…26ecbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…0db2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8f…8341backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.