TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Orlando City SCof FC Cincinnati, Orlando City SC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,337
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,442

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,337 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed FC Cincinnati28c2,841$799 inLost-$798.7799340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Orlando City SC67c1,667$1,124 inWon+$542.753,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Orlando City SC67c1,400$938 inWon+$461.8468150.8%346 W · 335 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed FC Cincinnati21c1,122$231 inLost-$231.231,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed FC Cincinnati29c458.36$135 inLost-$134.6398945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x91fe…c1c6backed Orlando City SC67c342.49$229 inWon+$113.0238246.1%176 W · 206 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed FC Cincinnati6c168.2$11 inLost-$10.521,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Orlando City SC80c160$127 inWon+$32.820449%100 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed Orlando City SC74c149.01$110 inWon+$39.1916437.2%61 W · 103 L-11.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Orlando City SC80c109$87 inWon+$21.89944.4%44 W · 55 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb763…cce5backed Orlando City SC67c100$67 inWon+$331540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked FC Cincinnati18c92$16 inLost-$16.152923.8%126 W · 403 L-25.8wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Orlando City SC67c86$58 inWon+$28.3818456.5%104 W · 80 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Orlando City SC67c83.15$56 inWon+$27.444042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked FC Cincinnati19c83$16 inLost-$15.7735550.4%179 W · 176 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Orlando City SC67c52$35 inWon+$17.1610257.8%59 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Orlando City SC67c43.05$29 inWon+$14.215966.1%39 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Orlando City SC67c43.05$29 inWon+$14.2112058.3%70 W · 50 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f41…5ffcbacked Orlando City SC68c38$26 inWon+$12.222763%17 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Orlando City SC80c29.4$23 inWon+$5.9782044.5%365 W · 455 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Orlando City SC67c20.57$14 inWon+$6.7914957.7%86 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Orlando City SC70c19.5$14 inWon+$5.7996756.8%549 W · 418 L+73.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe392…d868backed Orlando City SC67c16.72$11 inWon+$5.521450%7 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.