Mls · resolved market
Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49d2ca6caec2a63324595c90a3dc60c818604039fc2e9e9092ee7416a9ed1b9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 25c | 2,104$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,572.56 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 74c | 1,684$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.5 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 73c | 1,658$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.22 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 30c | 1,548$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.09 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 1,231$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7245…4b00backed Under | 25c | 998.36$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.11 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 41c | 951.1$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.55 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 74c | 808.6$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.26 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…bd17backed Over | 61c | 655.74$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 65c | 386.3$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.63 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 73c | 355$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.15 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 27c | 355$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.15 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 74c | 351.88$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.39 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 73c | 313.54$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.38 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 75c | 238.09$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.57 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Under | 34c | 222.81$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.16 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 25c | 217.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.63 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 26c | 211.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.51 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6044…f1d0backed Over | 70c | 209.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Over | 74c | 197.3$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 50c | 195.4$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.75 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Under | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 44c | 145$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 74c | 141.74$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 90 | 70%63 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 31c | 139.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.57 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 67c | 135.36$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 9c | 129.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 38c | 127$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 18c | 119.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 17c | 117.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.63 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 29c | 104.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.69 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Over | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 74c | 97.8$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ae…cf9ebacked Under | 43c | 96.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 34c | 84.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.72 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 73c | 78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 74c | 76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 26c | 67.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Over | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac25…147abacked Over | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 58c | 64.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d16…addabacked Over | 75c | 55.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 25c | 50.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 103 | 58.3%60 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 74c | 48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 25c | 45.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fde…095bbacked Over | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 26c | 41.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 72c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 74c | 32.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 36c | 30.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 65c | 21.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e8…5e6bbacked Over | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f65…ec56backed Over | 75c | 19.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.51per pick | 71cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5this page
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: FC Cincinnati O/U 1.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: FC Cincinnati O/U 2.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 0.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 1.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 4.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 5.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: Orlando City SC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: Orlando City SC O/U 0.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: Orlando City SC O/U 1.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: Orlando City SC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.