Mls · resolved market
Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0db8f569bd3f30288dee31cbbc5e6d8ffadf9e77e6af022ad277146dfa7d484e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x633e…d305backed Under | 66c | 5,612$3,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,908.02 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 34c | 3,539$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.35 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 34c | 3,196$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.69 | 103 | 58.3%60 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 22c | 3,011$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.64 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 76c | 2,734$2,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.79 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…3c32backed Under | 66c | 2,273$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.73 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 1,053$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.54 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…8148backed Over | 26c | 999.99$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.5 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 79c | 785.78$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.54 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 34c | 514$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.76 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 28c | 484.89$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.77 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 34c | 299.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 35c | 275.98$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.59 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 25c | 228.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 34c | 206$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 34c | 162.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Over | 34c | 152.05$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 78c | 106.3$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 71c | 94.83$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f4…12dabacked Under | 79c | 82.32$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 34c | 57.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d56…1c7dbacked Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 73c | 52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a8…daabbacked Over | 35c | 51.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -38%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Under | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 35c | 45.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 102 | 57.8%59 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…53c9backed Under | 65c | 30.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 74c | 28.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Under | 77c | 28.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Under | 73c | 24.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 72c | 20.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 76c | 17.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 77c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 4.5this page
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: FC Cincinnati O/U 1.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: FC Cincinnati O/U 2.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 0.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 1.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 5.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: Orlando City SC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: Orlando City SC O/U 0.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: Orlando City SC O/U 1.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: Orlando City SC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.