TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
T1 Academyof T1 Academy, Gen.G Global Academy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,545
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,198

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,545 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6918…782bbacked Gen.G Global Academy39c17,777$6,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,9331,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed Gen.G Global Academy40c16,000$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,399.9916356.4%92 W · 71 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Gen.G Global Academy40c15,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,999.981,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed T1 Academy61c12,299$7,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,796.611,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed T1 Academy60c5,485$3,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,170.512840.6%52 W · 76 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed T1 Academy60c3,925$2,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,570.1123832.4%77 W · 161 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked Gen.G Global Academy39c3,500$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3651,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc787…64e8backed T1 Academy60c3,334$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.63100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7425…e361backed T1 Academy60c3,334$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Gen.G Global Academy37c3,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.9948440.5%196 W · 288 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked T1 Academy61c2,960$1,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.2716047.5%76 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa5e…1468backed T1 Academy60c2,520$1,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.97549.3%37 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked T1 Academy62c2,165$1,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.0934250.6%173 W · 169 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked T1 Academy58c2,005$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.051,36837.7%516 W · 852 L-6.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Gen.G Global Academy41c1,807$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.4444451.8%230 W · 214 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed T1 Academy60c1,698$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.2933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-37.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed T1 Academy60c1,677$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.852538.9%204 W · 321 L+18.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked T1 Academy62c1,367$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.4767552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked T1 Academy60c1,204$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.640741.5%169 W · 238 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed T1 Academy64c1,100$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39647455.3%262 W · 212 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Gen.G Global Academy36c1,092$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.251,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed T1 Academy60c1,067$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.6718742.8%80 W · 107 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd98…6178backed T1 Academy61c725$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.752737%10 W · 17 L-5.1wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-22.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked T1 Academy61c681.97$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.9759248.3%286 W · 306 L+15.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked T1 Academy60c666.67$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.6711959.7%71 W · 48 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a4f…e6ffbacked T1 Academy60c617$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.815950.9%81 W · 78 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Gen.G Global Academy38c600$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2281,24242.6%529 W · 713 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked T1 Academy60c570.85$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.3418653.2%99 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fbf…4605backed T1 Academy60c548.33$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.3326042.3%110 W · 150 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked T1 Academy61c547.54$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.5425640.6%104 W · 152 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed T1 Academy60c508.07$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.6449847.2%235 W · 263 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x443c…d83abacked T1 Academy60c499.01$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.68749.4%43 W · 44 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed T1 Academy63c476.77$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.6786144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked T1 Academy60c470$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18812352%64 W · 59 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ade…fb15backed T1 Academy60c469.1$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.64616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-72.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked T1 Academy63c458$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.4622142.5%94 W · 127 L-13.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x13ee…01aebacked T1 Academy61c429.88$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.7818335.5%65 W · 118 L-23.7wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked T1 Academy64c404.36$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.571,35651.1%693 W · 663 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed Gen.G Global Academy40c400$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15875738.6%292 W · 465 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8562…0a61backed T1 Academy60c390$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1561338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cd5…12a2backed T1 Academy60c384.55$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.821154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed T1 Academy60c370$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14824835.1%87 W · 161 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Gen.G Global Academy37c350$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.51,15645.1%521 W · 635 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae0d…a507backed T1 Academy60c319.03$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.611225%3 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid+116.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e0…457fbacked T1 Academy60c315$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12610165.3%66 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked T1 Academy60c315$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1267160.6%43 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Gen.G Global Academy17c283.15$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.147247.2%34 W · 38 L+8.3wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+14.6%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Gen.G Global Academy38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,11435%390 W · 724 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb66…c8dfbacked T1 Academy60c262$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.86248.4%30 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked T1 Academy61c248$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.7260347.9%289 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc59f…954ebacked T1 Academy60c241.67$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.678949.4%44 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x050c…b15fbacked T1 Academy60c239.95$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.98650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6df…588cbacked T1 Academy60c221$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.411450%57 W · 57 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dce…c58ebacked T1 Academy60c212$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.81770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+35.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed T1 Academy65c191.73$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.9649461.3%303 W · 191 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed T1 Academy60c190$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7638257.9%221 W · 161 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-1.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0d72…a791backed T1 Academy60c187.07$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.8314850.7%75 W · 73 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18c6…a4dbbacked T1 Academy60c174$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.68058.8%47 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67e4…5aeabacked Gen.G Global Academy37c165.98$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f3d…1f52backed T1 Academy60c165.83$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.333953.8%21 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1ef…4a40backed T1 Academy63c159.99$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.28834.1%30 W · 58 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed T1 Academy60c159$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.626856.7%152 W · 116 L+1.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5839…3fa8backed T1 Academy63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7311667.2%78 W · 38 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ed7…3381backed T1 Academy60c151.08$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Gen.G Global Academy42c137.56$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.232053.8%172 W · 148 L+21.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6888…4c79backed T1 Academy61c133.56$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0910253.9%55 W · 47 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Gen.G Global Academy40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5179745.8%365 W · 432 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed T1 Academy60c108.6$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4437641.8%157 W · 219 L-18.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Gen.G Global Academy37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3757333%189 W · 384 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Gen.G Global Academy36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3663646.9%298 W · 338 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17cb…edaabacked T1 Academy61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396750.7%34 W · 33 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked T1 Academy61c97$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8344743.6%195 W · 252 L+1.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d7f…2ae7backed T1 Academy60c95.36$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.142832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.7wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-33%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1536…7f40backed T1 Academy61c89$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.712441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7894…7b9dbacked T1 Academy60c83$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.210253.9%55 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed T1 Academy65c80$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284266.7%28 W · 14 L+0.2wins0.00per pick66cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6700…67c4backed T1 Academy63c79.24$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3211649.1%57 W · 59 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58f1…7032backed T1 Academy63c79.24$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.322653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbced…5808backed T1 Academy60c79$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.618257.1%104 W · 78 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed T1 Academy60c74.62$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.581,57648.4%763 W · 813 L+17.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09f3…40f4backed T1 Academy60c74.11$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Gen.G Global Academy40c73.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6536047.5%171 W · 189 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8c8…7c4cbacked Gen.G Global Academy39c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.436952.3%193 W · 176 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa85f…bb16backed T1 Academy63c58.78$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.755040%20 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked T1 Academy59c58.42$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9518560.5%112 W · 73 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f5…bb11backed Gen.G Global Academy37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.510657.5%61 W · 45 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd23c…07cebacked Gen.G Global Academy36c45.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.423836.8%14 W · 24 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-28.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfbe4…f12fbacked T1 Academy61c41$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.995464.8%35 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5930…51d2backed T1 Academy63c39.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.683669.4%25 W · 11 L+6.5wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+27.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x097c…630abacked T1 Academy63c39.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.681776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+22.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked Gen.G Global Academy40c37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.849756.3%280 W · 217 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc187…7ac1backed T1 Academy60c36$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.47252.8%38 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed T1 Academy61c34$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2622452.7%118 W · 106 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f9e…9aa0backed T1 Academy62c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.14261.9%26 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f97…6aafbacked T1 Academy61c30.26$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.811659.5%69 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8f…de8abacked Gen.G Global Academy40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1279345.4%360 W · 433 L-22.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5aa…e292backed T1 Academy64c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.85545.5%25 W · 30 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x70b6…f93fbacked T1 Academy60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102356.5%13 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x016c…df21backed T1 Academy63c23.6$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7318348.1%88 W · 95 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0642…8c68backed T1 Academy61c21.24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2813759.9%82 W · 55 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.