Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x563c9cd3c60afe177d5d296ff734c44506cc0b9df59975f372ba1dc9ee2989cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a83…5087backed Yes | 2c | 1,409$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 14c | 789.79$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.21 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x905c…14b5backed Yes | 17c | 557.51$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 26c | 497.75$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.67 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 421.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2a13…69f2backed Yes | 28c | 375.69$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.76 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 6c | 345.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…75fabacked Yes | 16c | 306.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 19c | 297.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes | 24c | 279.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 261.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked No | 78c | 209.37$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 11c | 206.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 21c | 193.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed Yes | 22c | 186.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 16c | 177.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 6c | 164.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 10c | 159.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 14c | 157.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 16c | 155.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 21c | 151.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 148.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked No | 73c | 133.6$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 11c | 127.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…0bd2backed Yes | 23c | 119.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 26c | 113.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 103.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…7a17backed No | 78c | 99.52$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 23c | 98.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 24c | 82.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 71.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x310c…0b68backed Yes | 26c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 72c | 69.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 64.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 21c | 64.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked No | 77c | 63.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 26c | 62.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 21c | 62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed No | 79c | 61.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 58.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 76c | 58.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes | 23c | 56.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…8bc6backed Yes | 26c | 54.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 53.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 23c | 53.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 76c | 51.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 76c | 49.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…e7a4backed Yes | 27c | 49.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 75c | 48.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…af44backed Yes | 33c | 48.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2093…758cbacked Yes | 31c | 45.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 42.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe342…8698backed No | 76c | 41.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 28c | 40.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf5…ffa3backed No | 78c | 39.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 76c | 29.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 72c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 68c | 19.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed No | 75c | 18.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 78c | 17.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 73c | 17.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 78c | 16.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 78c | 15.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 72c | 14.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.