TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,696
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,188

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,696 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes17c725.74$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.687,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa233…dfe8backed Yes4c681.49$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2813514.8%20 W · 115 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes31c477.27$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.0156627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea9…7927backed Yes40c427.23$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.958151.9%42 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No70c376.16$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.453437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes31c342.22$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.61,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes10c331.47$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.578,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd16f…2badbacked Yes35c270.29$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.467416.2%12 W · 62 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-33.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x056b…e7a4backed Yes34c232.48$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.623020%6 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52f3…92d6backed Yes26c230.71$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.344314%6 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7014338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes22c192.61$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.751,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes7c189.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5158422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes22c184.38$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.011,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes21c182.11$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.612,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes21c151.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9216335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c151.5$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes10c142.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5334219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes8c141.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3245619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c2…85f4backed Yes33c135.69$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.153930.8%12 W · 27 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+106.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes40c124.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8533018.8%62 W · 268 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No60c124.57$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.2732652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6f1…710bbacked No75c117.53$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.073956.4%22 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes28c112.46$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No68c105.02$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6199949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes11c103.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.874156.1%23 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2956118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes26c99.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269919.2%19 W · 80 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+84.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdef7…2978backed Yes30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307319.2%14 W · 59 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes25c99.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2536930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes22c97.62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7493034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes42c97.3$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.861,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes28c90.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.531341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No59c90.06$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.929,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes30c89.8$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9423035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes27c89.4$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3122028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No58c85.25$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.827167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd4e…3207backed Yes35c83.44$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+45.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No64c83.44$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.361,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09dd…542fbacked Yes28c81.96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.071520%3 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes38c80.96$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6329640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes21c79.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3118842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7280…65d2backed Yes30c76.84$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7422023.6%52 W · 168 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes31c73.46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4128737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed Yes32c73.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.299344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes31c71.72$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.583,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No70c71.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4330859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes28c66.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.636,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No63c66.13$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.271,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed No64c62.16$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.157659.2%45 W · 31 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No63c61.24$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7559440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef5…0366backed Yes33c58.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.462339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No66c58.93$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9219152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes31c55.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2825549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc8…08c1backed No68c54$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x039c…af44backed Yes40c50.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.222231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59d3…f696backed No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+43.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bbe…85a3backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.25825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-57.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2298…9f33backed No71c48.55$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0835168.4%240 W · 111 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6688…fdcebacked Yes36c47.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.283842.1%16 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes28c46.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9911341.6%47 W · 66 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x122f…f7bebacked Yes41c45.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x056c…9c96backed Yes41c45.34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.591833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-47.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2093…758cbacked Yes34c41.21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.01742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes37c40.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.995,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x472a…2dadbacked Yes30c40.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes34c38.28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9132044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes32c37.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.057326%19 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes42c33.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1317643.2%76 W · 100 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes43c32.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1413042.3%55 W · 75 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8dd…5c14backed Yes36c32.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.591625%4 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7528742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.278663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8409…a952backed Yes38c29.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.251747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No62c28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.644,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No69c27.53$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5310569.5%73 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1685…97abbacked No72c27.02$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6316740.1%67 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No73c25.3$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8331868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4528…c882backed No69c24.67$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.72450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1c0…646ebacked No65c24.18$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.512568%17 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+37.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No69c21.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5341460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No71c20.93$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.141,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63ac…3fc9backed No66c19.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.798366.3%55 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5208…ec3abacked No62c19.84$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.633636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4925…8f6cbacked No71c19.63$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.699858.2%57 W · 41 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21b7…1766backed No65c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No79c18.84$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.989,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4453…2b6bbacked No67c17.97$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9313081.5%106 W · 24 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick72cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No70c15.24$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5712365%80 W · 43 L+0.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61ef…95fcbacked No69c15.17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.671942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1c1…1bebbacked No71c14.57$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2227648.6%134 W · 142 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.