Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe02abcb685dd61c94b8298eb34de0787f160b78823652972c5ba866b3478dfff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 37c | 1,681$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.54 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 52c | 1,130$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.82 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 887.39$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed Yes | 19c | 884.34$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.8 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 661.67$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.49 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 9c | 499.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 25c | 490.39$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.77 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 16c | 448.85$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.17 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 38c | 447.4$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 58c | 433.34$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 413.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 323.92$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.09 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 16c | 321.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.27 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…9c96backed No | 74c | 320.23$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.54 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 33c | 316.9$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.46 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 7c | 307.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 20c | 299.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.98 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 74c | 297.98$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.13 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 18c | 282.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.09 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 13c | 258.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.54 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 20c | 249.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 18c | 243.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.43 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 227.32$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e84…659dbacked No | 80c | 215.19$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.44 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 14c | 210.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.07 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 51c | 207.8$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.37 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 199.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 79c | 173.53$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.56 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7f…c369backed Yes | 16c | 169.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 22c | 156$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.6 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 28c | 148.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.57 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 75c | 140.86$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 35c | 137.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.21 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 22c | 137.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.74 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 14c | 135.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 132.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.3 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 130$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…75fabacked Yes | 34c | 129.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.09 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…a12cbacked Yes | 66c | 128.65$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 40c | 128.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.1 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 126.8$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 70c | 126.11$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 57c | 122.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 17c | 120.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.68 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 24c | 116.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.94 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 35c | 113.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.57 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 74c | 113.43$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 15c | 111.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.84 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…ebfebacked No | 26c | 109.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 105.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 37c | 105.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed No | 65c | 102.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.58 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked No | 22c | 102.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…3207backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 11c | 99.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.9 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 17c | 97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.05 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes | 61c | 95.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 55c | 95.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 22c | 92.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 14c | 92.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.22 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 83.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…b7b1backed No | 68c | 81.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 80.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 74c | 79.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 54c | 77.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 70c | 76.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 20c | 74.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 20c | 73.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 74c | 72.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 75c | 70.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62c…4efcbacked No | 79c | 70.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 69.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 24c | 67.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 16c | 66.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 21c | 58.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa636…95f3backed No | 70c | 58.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 20c | 57.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f24…38a5backed No | 46c | 53.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…08ccbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 29c | 48.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 29c | 46.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 24c | 46.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 27c | 45.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 58c | 45.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 53c | 43.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked No | 79c | 42.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…a7f2backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 28c | 36.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed No | 58c | 35.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…0866backed No | 77c | 34.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.