TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,747
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,112

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,747 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes37c1,681$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.542,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes52c1,130$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.8225362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No40c887.39$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.447,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2ea9…7927backed Yes19c884.34$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.88151.9%42 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes18c661.67$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.494,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No9c499.09$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9266944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes25c490.39$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.7733018.8%62 W · 268 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes16c448.85$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.1756627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes38c447.4$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.2512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No58c433.34$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes14c413.4$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.2317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No56c323.92$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.094,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes16c321.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.271,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x056c…9c96backed No74c320.23$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.541833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-47.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes33c316.9$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.462,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No7c307.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0134617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes20c299.97$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.9823035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69e3…2288backed Yes74c297.98$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.135244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes18c282.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.0945127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes13c258.77$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.5496620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x131d…2a50backed No20c249.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9110335.9%37 W · 66 L-15.3wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-38.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes18c243.11$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.431,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No76c227.32$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.988,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e84…659dbacked No80c215.19$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.443473.5%25 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes14c210.36$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.0756118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes51c207.8$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.3725742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdef7…2978backed Yes15c200$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1707319.2%14 W · 59 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes24c199.48$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.672,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No79c173.53$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.5610569.5%73 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a7f…c369backed Yes16c169.87$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.38728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick13cpaid+44.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes22c156$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.693034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1685…97abbacked Yes28c148.72$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.5716740.1%67 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked Yes75c140.86$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5726265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes35c137.47$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.211,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5652…2aa5backed Yes22c137.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.7416157.1%92 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No14c135.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4458422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes17c132.31$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.31,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c130$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.912,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3975…75fabacked Yes34c129.05$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.096918.8%13 W · 56 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x124b…a12cbacked Yes66c128.65$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.121154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes40c128.41$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.157044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No80c126.8$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.125,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…9936backed Yes70c126.11$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0310059%59 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes57c122.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.614156.1%23 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes17c120.72$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.6840741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes24c116.89$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.9422028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes35c113.83$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.5734219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes74c113.43$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8736648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes15c111.78$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.8430428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fe7…ebfebacked No26c109.77$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No51c105.51$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes37c105.01$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.511,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bae…61b8backed No65c102.55$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.584647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1fa…047dbacked No22c102.47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.089428.7%27 W · 67 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819919.2%19 W · 80 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+84.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes14c100$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8610728%30 W · 77 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.57659.2%45 W · 31 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd4e…3207backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+45.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes11c99.89$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.91,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes17c97$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.0512735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes61c95.98$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.455232.7%17 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes55c95.49$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0720866.8%139 W · 69 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes22c92.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9216320.2%33 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes14c92.19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.2213424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes19c83.2$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.069,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f0…b7b1backed No68c81.89$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.48922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.33per pick55cpaid-71.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes15c80.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.697,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes74c79.91$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5918842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed No54c77.75$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6417358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No70c76.08$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0949854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed No20c74.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8726327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes20c73.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.711,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes74c72.55$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8832548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No75c70.4$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7319060.5%115 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd62c…4efcbacked No79c70.09$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.312365.2%15 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes49c69.4$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.676,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes24c67.2$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8726434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes16c66.18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.579235.9%33 W · 59 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes21c58.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5359125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa636…95f3backed No70c58.2$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.743658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f46…77e8backed Yes20c57.19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6612625.4%32 W · 94 L+9.0wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+45.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f24…38a5backed No46c53.27$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.24825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-65.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4081029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb28…08ccbacked Yes25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+90.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.511341.6%47 W · 66 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed No48c49.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2441845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes29c48.01$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.076848.5%33 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes29c46.46$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9260519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb185…48c1backed Yes24c46.18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2819720.8%41 W · 156 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d41…24d7backed Yes27c45.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.048942.7%38 W · 51 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-18.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No58c45.02$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0557232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No53c43.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.971,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked No47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021848.6%106 W · 112 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3b7…b30abacked No79c42.33$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.285474.1%40 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ba…a7f2backed Yes30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes28c36.44$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.131,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa5f…08d5backed No58c35.46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.684367.4%29 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf859…0866backed No77c34.76$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.871376.9%10 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick75cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.