MLB · resolved market
1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x569dd20c88b65434e2af8e212a3ed83b52444c282db8567e258102d108f82c45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 25c | 1,692$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.77 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets | 73c | 1,151$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.59 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Mets | 76c | 980.19$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.4 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f4…936bbacked New York Mets | 66c | 320.99$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.99 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…bc1cbacked New York Mets | 73c | 267.12$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked New York Mets | 79c | 256$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 24c | 183$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked New York Mets | 78c | 112.03$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed New York Mets | 65c | 112$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 59.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8b…da36backed New York Mets | 77c | 54.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +103%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…eebfbacked New York Mets | 77c | 54.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked New York Mets | 79c | 37.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked New York Mets | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked New York Mets | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.