MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2724937d8bba62a66b4de1a9bf7d8485429b6a9e4ab8a85d54e81bc0f790bf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $363,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $362,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $363,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 60c | 333,632$199,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133,870.01 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 40c | 272,044$108,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108,812.18 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 40c | 24,795$9,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,887.77 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 42c | 10,040$4,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,217 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over | 41c | 8,520$3,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,493.2 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 41c | 5,780$2,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,367.09 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 7c | 5,717$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.9 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 40c | 3,601$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440.41 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 40c | 3,072$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.04 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 41c | 2,730$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.5 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 60c | 1,890$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.87 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 41c | 1,525$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.23 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed Over | 22c | 1,192$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.52 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 59c | 1,061$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.81 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Over | 42c | 1,000$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5102…7b08backed Over | 41c | 900$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 41c | 750$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Over | 41c | 731.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +5.2wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 40c | 705.99$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.69 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Over | 36c | 648.84$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.03 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 40c | 468$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.92 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Over | 21c | 462.63$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.35 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 41c | 452.99$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.71 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5e…2ea3backed Over | 7c | 419$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 15c | 303.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa90…c709backed Under | 77c | 297.84$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed Under | 60c | 293.33$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.33 | 321 | 57%183 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…2deebacked Over | 28c | 279.6$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.29 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc1…53babacked Over | 28c | 266.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 40c | 264.89$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.43 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Under | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 43c | 255.83$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 42c | 253$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.26 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…1901backed Under | 57c | 252.89$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.74 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 60c | 250.35$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.35 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 37c | 241$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.17 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 43c | 182.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 10c | 181.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdf…8116backed Over | 40c | 180$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 38c | 144.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 41c | 144.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 40c | 138$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 79c | 116.66$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 41c | 105.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 60c | 100.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 43c | 86.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 43c | 86.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 41c | 81.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…4245backed Under | 61c | 75.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…b2f7backed Under | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…cbf9backed Over | 24c | 66.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 36c | 65.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 60c | 60.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 43c | 51.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 41c | 44.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…3eefbacked Under | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…30a0backed Over | 41c | 42.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…b1fbbacked Over | 40c | 39.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…6b36backed Over | 40c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b9…9ab5backed Under | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…f703backed Under | 60c | 25.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x648f…bb7bbacked Under | 57c | 25.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6b…a6f3backed Under | 57c | 25.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)New York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.