MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1df18124f3427b1f08875bffb8c7a159ef3842667db35c9a50bf163fef8e1677
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 53c | 10,585$5,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,998.77 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Yes | 53c | 4,858$2,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,574.77 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 18c | 1,727$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.76 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 19cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 53c | 1,578$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.37 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 46c | 1,459$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.05 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 55c | 1,096$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.57 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 53c | 662$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.86 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…bc1cbacked No | 47c | 558.97$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.97 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Yes | 51c | 483$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.28 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 53c | 245.19$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.2 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 48c | 217.72$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.19 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 49c | 171$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.31 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Yes | 40c | 170$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 53c | 167.52$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.79 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Yes | 46c | 154.25$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 53c | 140$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 64c | 109$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b5…4a34backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Yes | 54c | 74.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 318 | 49.7%158 W · 160 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad2…5dfebacked Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked No | 47c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 22c | 51.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 548 | 15.9%87 W · 461 L | -41.1wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…5c16backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Yes | 39c | 40.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 51c | 29.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 46c | 27.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648f…bb7bbacked Yes | 54c | 23.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes | 55c | 22.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Philliesthis page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)New York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.