TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,502
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,535

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,502 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x060f…5a9dbacked Under69c4,675$3,210 inWon+$1,465.641952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over39c3,973$1,565 inLost-$1,564.765,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Over44c2,855$1,262 inLost-$1,261.534044.4%151 W · 189 L-14.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Under45c2,186$981 inWon+$1,204.941,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over44c1,715$755 inLost-$755.354,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Under61c706.62$431 inWon+$275.5816746.7%78 W · 89 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Under55c648$355 inWon+$292.625750.9%29 W · 28 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc8f…d0e4backed Over32c595.58$189 inLost-$188.693627.8%10 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Over37c390.54$144 inLost-$144.590446.9%424 W · 480 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over41c306.39$127 inLost-$126.822,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Under51c300.2$153 inWon+$147.114336.4%52 W · 91 L-9.9wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-36.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Under54c207.08$112 inWon+$95.3619353.9%104 W · 89 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74f9…6024backed Under61c200$122 inWon+$7816057.5%92 W · 68 L+12.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Under54c194.55$106 inWon+$88.7113858.7%81 W · 57 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf4d…1ee4backed Over28c190.93$53 inLost-$53.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Under72c165$119 inWon+$46.245550.3%229 W · 226 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2126…aeebbacked Over33c90.97$30 inLost-$30.379355.9%52 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17ef…9a2cbacked Under52c62.32$32 inWon+$29.912850%14 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc169…cb6abacked Over56c53.57$30 inLost-$306445.3%29 W · 35 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf56d…3658backed Over37c43.38$16 inLost-$16.051020%2 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-64.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x39b2…157cbacked Under54c27.75$15 inWon+$12.7614750.3%74 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ad…34cebacked Under54c20.37$11 inWon+$9.372166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+26.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe34c…ca55backed Under61c20$12 inWon+$7.84250%21 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.