NFL · resolved market
Will the Jets win by 7 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56cad46333e0f83b66ebec03813196b3ca2603ea57ea945b45bca15cc910d13b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jetsof Jets, Patriots
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Patriots | 51c | 18,244$9,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,221.99 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Jets | 49c | 8,565$4,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,368.18 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Jets | 50c | 6,985$3,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,492.5 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…7407backed Jets | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…84acbacked Patriots | 51c | 2,151$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.96 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…2081backed Jets | 51c | 1,178$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.4 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Jets | 51c | 1,020$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.61 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…8a79backed Jets | 49c | 958.11$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.11 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Patriots | 50c | 630$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.7 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Patriots | 51c | 569$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.19 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Patriots | 3c | 445.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Jets | 49c | 394.51$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.2 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ee…2c30backed Jets | 51c | 392$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.08 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…aee3backed Patriots | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…a821backed Patriots | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9b…5722backed Jets | 49c | 285.44$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.57 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Patriots | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd6…27d3backed Jets | 51c | 230$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.7 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1130…f920backed Jets | 49c | 222.45$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.45 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Jets | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8381…d5cdbacked Patriots | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Jets | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 180 | 51.7%93 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…bdf7backed Patriots | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26d9…eff0backed Jets | 49c | 136.73$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Patriots | 49c | 116$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c3…3800backed Jets | 51c | 105.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Jets | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Patriots | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed Patriots | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea9…02f9backed Patriots | 52c | 77.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Patriots | 49c | 75.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -12.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…fc4cbacked Jets | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Jets | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7173…7d75backed Patriots | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…d7c5backed Patriots | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…e3a1backed Patriots | 52c | 40.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb612…a5a7backed Jets | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +149%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Patriots | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…3f08backed Patriots | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…63d5backed Patriots | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed Patriots | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8d…3ee3backed Jets | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Jets | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Jets win by 7 or more points?this page
- Will the Jets and Patriots combine for 39 or more points?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.