Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Sion vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56f041c11abc00f7f918f43609f583cd4933513849281dac9c7b23d91c837c46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 24c | 8,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 2,500$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 21c | 2,322$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.8 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 76c | 1,925$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.94 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 25c | 1,397$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.95 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 907.36$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.24 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 76c | 873$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.36 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 76c | 724.67$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.24 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 76c | 657$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.68 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 77c | 492.83$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.35 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…0935backed Yes | 54c | 462.67$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.76 | 40 | 82.5%33 W · 7 L | +11.3wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 76c | 458.34$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 74c | 360.11$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.45 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed Yes | 17c | 294.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 70c | 270.94$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.15 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 46c | 242$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.68 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…4fd0backed Yes | 23c | 219.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Yes | 45c | 217$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…01e5backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 77c | 148.54$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 44c | 148.05$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.52 | 192 | 50.5%97 W · 95 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…59b8backed No | 54c | 146.9$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 77c | 140.91$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 24c | 133.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 89.66$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 74c | 81.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 158 | 28.5%45 W · 113 L | -18.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked Yes | 44c | 74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 76c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…cea7backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 79c | 49.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…9ccbbacked Yes | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 71c | 44.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…200bbacked No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 78cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 56c | 35.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…abe8backed No | 78c | 28.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429e…383dbacked Yes | 54c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 53c | 26.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed No | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 202 | 44.6%90 W · 112 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed No | 77c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Sion vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?this page
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-08-20?Yes won
- Will FC Sion win on 2026-08-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.