TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,329
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,639

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,329 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x15b1…a8e8backed No53c667.79$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.1416335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes46c621$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.313,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No55c300.1$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.045,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf56c…ad84backed Yes5c299.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155073.4%17 W · 490 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53d3…c151backed Yes43c297.29$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.841330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1717…1f7cbacked No57c220.09$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.146536.9%24 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes33c217$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3856627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27ce…f2a5backed Yes35c211.01$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bf6…5219backed Yes44c207.92$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.883935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No56c180.45$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.263,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes55c178.82$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.725362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes38c171.89$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.133,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ea7…e13fbacked Yes57c165$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.235925.4%15 W · 44 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b7c…7f28backed No61c163.63$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.632842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc92…f31cbacked Yes28c157$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.961145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+45.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No58c152.83$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.882,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No50c151.95$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6949646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No65c150.85$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7486173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed No52c148.39$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.141,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5992…63d0backed No68c143.08$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-51.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No71c131.95$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.599963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7280…65d2backed Yes28c129.24$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8722023.6%52 W · 168 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes35c123.59$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6621236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No72c120$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.98,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes25c115.4$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.47,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes35c109.52$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3318837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No40c107.67$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.072,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes41c106.19$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4417831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No57c102.79$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3849854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No75c102.74$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.592,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6aa…55edbacked Yes60c102.13$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.053030%9 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No55c101.52$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.921,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83e3…5652backed Yes33c99.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333935.9%14 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f30…6866backed Yes40c99.37$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+54.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes46c99.13$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.699949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No58c98.1$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9184124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes44c92.94$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.711,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes48c91.86$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7523633.5%79 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x23af…e576backed Yes44c91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.14714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-75.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No51c90$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.954,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No57c89.32$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.169,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes41c84.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8519338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes39c84.22$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc69a…4d6bbacked Yes52c76.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4016863.1%106 W · 62 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes26c75.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013423.1%31 W · 103 L-11.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x61b8…e749backed Yes46c70$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.24658.7%27 W · 19 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0067…446fbacked Yes29c69.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204124.4%10 W · 31 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes26c66.58$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.44,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes29c66.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2156131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1009…3c2bbacked Yes61c64.78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.59933.3%3 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.35per pick69cpaid-57.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8c99…3ef0backed No74c54.25$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.978955.1%49 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No78c53.67$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.717468.9%51 W · 23 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4cb…b928backed Yes60c51.55$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.84425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-52.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes24c50.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3471031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2078663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd475…35c5backed No57c49.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No70c49.44$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.882,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x167e…0f16backed No59c48.78$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208361.4%51 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaada…160bbacked Yes41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked No59c48.04$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9229520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes24c46.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0998160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes43c46.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No65c45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8943859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d5c…f7e9backed Yes34c44.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0209…2f35backed Yes42c42.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.93633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed No58c42.62$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7754857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe34d…41f0backed Yes47c39.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.812147.9%58 W · 63 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked No52c38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2415923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf430…e6bcbacked Yes43c37.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.012941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4ad…ff75backed Yes41c36.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154027.5%11 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes42c35.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1511546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No74c35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.11,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No58c33.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.284,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No73c32.85$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.872,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No42c32.41$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.771,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc705…b62fbacked Yes31c32.03$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102850%14 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5dc4…0705backed Yes33c31.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.511414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-62%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf64a…db74backed Yes48c31.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1533349.8%166 W · 167 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58ff…7e02backed No70c31$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.411758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8465…1153backed Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfaf6…8b41backed Yes41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-47.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8544646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No71c28.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5198565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked No43c27.35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4726828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfde1…914bbacked Yes40c26.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.422744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No55c26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.74,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No67c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2544659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes44c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9740242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes44c24.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0120928.7%60 W · 149 L-45.3wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-44.4%equal weight28-0.19 edge/pick
0xceb6…c637backed Yes41c24.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.45per pick60cpaid-63.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7903…57f6backed No61c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4627769%191 W · 86 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c22.79$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes60c22.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.413959%82 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No78c21.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.842,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No74c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4639159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1116626.5%44 W · 122 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbc3…37b9backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87464.9%48 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes51c19.58$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1013042.3%55 W · 75 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No77c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.149,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.