Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd14d7fef1522ebd964d94e3c220eb40cf9529bd2d99bf6b5407cf34063cead0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 6c | 1,106$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 3c | 809.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 18c | 629.1$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.35 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 2c | 499.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 6c | 399.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 31c | 366.25$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.33 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ce…f2a5backed Yes | 43c | 317.19$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.19 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 28c | 299.95$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.66 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 276.66$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 10c | 266$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3946…fc1dbacked Yes | 30c | 248.96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 71c | 241.43$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.4 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 241.2$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.06 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 72c | 240.62$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.26 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 28c | 237$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.04 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 236.29$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.82 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 30c | 229.09$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.97 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 35c | 218.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.06 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 40c | 210.37$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.52 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 185.72$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.41 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…712bbacked Yes | 43c | 181.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.44 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 33c | 180.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 20c | 169.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 8c | 167.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 69c | 156.59$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.71 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 60c | 151.61$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…8508backed Yes | 33c | 151.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 9c | 150.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 74c | 149.97$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…7dc3backed Yes | 49c | 144.09$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.11 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 40c | 143.55$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.67 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 143.46$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 73c | 142.85$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.28 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…d2acbacked No | 61c | 140.85$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.53 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 33c | 140$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.34 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…e6bcbacked Yes | 31c | 133.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.56 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 39c | 132.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 128.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 125$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 68c | 121.36$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 109.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 34c | 103.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 70c | 96.09$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f30…6866backed Yes | 31c | 95.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.44 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 33c | 91.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 69c | 90.62$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 86.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 80.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 29c | 78.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes | 34c | 78.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 69.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 28c | 66.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 31c | 63.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 79c | 63.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 69c | 59.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 29c | 59.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 51c | 59.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…446fbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 71c | 55.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 29c | 55.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 61c | 54.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 77c | 53.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 29c | 51.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 56c | 51.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 70c | 51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 72c | 51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 27c | 50.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…a5adbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 30c | 49.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 70c | 48.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 69c | 47.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 69c | 47.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5c…f7e9backed Yes | 32c | 46.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 34c | 44.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 68c | 42.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 30c | 41.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 72c | 41.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x432e…8062backed No | 26c | 40.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…31c4backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 42c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…32a3backed Yes | 30c | 37.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0209…2f35backed Yes | 42c | 36.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…7f0fbacked Yes | 30c | 36.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a7…396dbacked Yes | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 64cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 70c | 35.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 47c | 33.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaada…160bbacked Yes | 41c | 31.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.