TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Senators vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,171
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,741

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,171 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2586…c893backed Over54c5,900$3,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,713.9983652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Over53c4,314$2,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,027.7129146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Under47c3,936$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,850.074240.5%17 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Over56c2,798$1,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.467051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x034b…b22bbacked Under46c2,598$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1951020%2 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-60.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Under44c1,920$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.83354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under45c1,765$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.662,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over54c1,323$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.551,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad15…ee7fbacked Under44c1,268$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5586946.4%32 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over54c1,143$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.8591653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Over55c1,123$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.2427150.2%136 W · 135 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bd3…394cbacked Under47c1,119$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.732240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Over53c934$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.6443456%243 W · 191 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under43c904.94$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.1389547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Under45c891.59$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.223342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under46c802.5$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.1551452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Under46c801$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.4638844.6%173 W · 215 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Under46c794.11$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.2912552%65 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under47c702$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32833950.1%170 W · 169 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4e05…1b97backed Under47c694.75$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.864339.5%17 W · 26 L-6.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-30.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Under46c652.17$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30021849.5%108 W · 110 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over54c608.77$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.0356152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Under47c493.79$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.0817247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over68c493$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.3689355.5%496 W · 397 L+67.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Over53c473.27$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.376341.3%26 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over58c465.52$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.5247256.8%268 W · 204 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Over57c460$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.839649.5%196 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40a2…19c9backed Under46c324.48$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.261145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over57c294$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.4261953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under44c228.82$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.682,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under45c183.41$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.531,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e49…fb01backed Over58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.411258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3033…fc1abacked Under27c146.76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under43c139.38$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.952,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Over54c110$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.522352.9%118 W · 105 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Over56c102.46$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.081,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…94e9backed Over54c102.26$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0211250%56 W · 56 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe276…a85bbacked Under44c80.7$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.512729.6%8 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-28.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2886…9bb2backed Over73c79$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.335352.8%28 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a50…ea80backed Under44c78.8$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.674445.5%20 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Over58c60.34$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3443256.5%244 W · 188 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56a8…3639backed Under46c54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.844637%17 W · 29 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-25%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea4b…dedebacked Under46c53.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.472646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over56c51.5$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6666552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Over61c49.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3923450%117 W · 117 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9b…e74abacked Over57c45.61$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6178443.8%343 W · 441 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cc3…1e73backed Over57c43.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.863256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Under46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2056553.6%303 W · 262 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Over55c40.86$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3919356%108 W · 85 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd5…ef85backed Under47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.813647.1%64 W · 72 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0112…4fe9backed Over54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0412547.2%59 W · 66 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed Under46c35.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.33837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4d0…91acbacked Under48c31.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0117858.4%104 W · 74 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d75…12a6backed Under47c28.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.115848.3%28 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-10.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c08…af98backed Over55c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2733756.4%190 W · 147 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Over56c24.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.784440.9%18 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Under44c24.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6113253%70 W · 62 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52fe…effdbacked Over55c23.18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.433554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.