MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5719eafaf8a5e7716c5ac773bced2a2ca6826430b743e258285def1b3f0a6f97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 4,829$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,283.38 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 2,255$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.77 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 1,197$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.08 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked San Diego Padres | 75c | 1,142$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.07 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 1,138$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.46 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies | 27c | 1,002$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.01 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Diego Padres | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked San Diego Padres | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed San Diego Padres | 77c | 973.03$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.95 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 68c | 600$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 599.15$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.65 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 594.3$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.09 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…38febacked Philadelphia Phillies | 24c | 512.13$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.22 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed San Diego Padres | 71c | 454.47$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.19 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed San Diego Padres | 68c | 420$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.6 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 349$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.08 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed San Diego Padres | 68c | 349$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.32 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked San Diego Padres | 68c | 246$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.28 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 24c | 178.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.08 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0706…f25dbacked San Diego Padres | 78c | 150$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 15c | 149.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 127.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 26c | 126.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.52 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Philadelphia Phillies | 28c | 110.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.71 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 24c | 110.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 28c | 107$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.04 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 103.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.93 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 101.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.26 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Philadelphia Phillies | 29c | 81.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4efc…2d8dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 55.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a6…4e6dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 48.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego PadresPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 2.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 3.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.