MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x721bf8286635ef812da2f17dd358a3d4470f09a1725c1c015aa60a26a78458b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 63c | 7,737$4,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,839.39 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 34c | 5,700$1,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,947.33 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4e…a24abacked Under | 41c | 2,457$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.63 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b79…2a1cbacked Over | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 73c | 1,987$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.07 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 26c | 1,697$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.1 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Over | 37c | 1,618$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 64c | 1,402$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 39c | 1,018$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.26 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 66c | 827.66$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.65 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 25c | 805.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.48 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f5…09ddbacked Over | 17c | 799.97$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 59c | 797.84$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.18 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Over | 60c | 700$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Under | 48c | 599.99$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Over | 52c | 561.36$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.91 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 58c | 517.23$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 27c | 460.91$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.89 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 32c | 455.49$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.35 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 64c | 223.44$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.44 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 55c | 199.51$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.51 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 77c | 163.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Over | 42c | 118.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 43c | 104.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 44c | 92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 78c | 89.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 17c | 85.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 16c | 71.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 22c | 56.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad3f…a377backed Over | 39c | 51.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd764…ae83backed Over | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 61c | 39.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fd…7fefbacked Over | 51c | 39.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 43c | 38.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 321 | 57%183 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…765dbacked Under | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…b8dbbacked Under | 52c | 22.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 52c | 22.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 66c | 20.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…338abacked Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 79c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego PadresPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 2.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 3.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.